MLB All-Star Game spread pick, run total play: Best Bets for July 11

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American League's Julio Rodriguez, of the Seattle Mariners, reacts after he beat National League's Pete Alonso, of the New York Mets, to advance to the second round during the MLB All-Star baseball Home Run Derby in Seattle, Monday, July 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Ted Warren)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday, July 11:

TOP PLAY

The play: MLB All-Star Game, National League over American League

The odds: -110

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8 p.m. (FOX)

Our take: The American League has won the past nine MLB All-Star Games, but that isn’t swaying us since we feel like the National League has the better roster in 2023.

The betting line saw the AL open as a slight favorite, but it moved to even money likely due to the number of injuries on the AL squad as opposed to the NL, whose original starting nine is healthy going in.

While there will be a ton of substitutions per usual, the NL’s overall depth also appears stronger, especially on the pitching side to where we’ll bank on them breaking the AL’s string of ASG dominance.

ALL-STAR GAME TOTAL

The play: MLB All-Star Game: OVER 7 runs

The odds: -122

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Our take: MLB All-Star Games typically don’t see many runs scored with the number of stud pitchers entering the game throughout the night, but this year could be a different story.

While there will still be plenty of elite pitching featured on both sides, more arms were scratched than usual, including projected starters Shane McClanahan and Clayton Kershaw to where the bats should be able to thrive.

The majority of elite hitters on both sides are participating, so we’ll take a shot on the over in hopes that they’ll take advantage of the number of replacement pitchers.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Monday’s best bets

• Home Run Derby first round: Pete Alonso over Julio Rodriguez (LOST)

• Home Run Derby: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit longest home run (LOST)

Monday’s record: 0-2

Total for the week: 0-2

Total for July: 7-12

Total for 2023: 157-174

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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