Pete Alonso-Julio Rodriguez Home Run Derby matchup pick: July 10 best bets

National League's Pete Alonso, of the New York Mets, holds the champions trophy after winning the MLB All Star baseball Home Run Derby, Monday, July 12, 2021, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Monday, July 10:


The play: MLB Home Run Derby first round matchup: Pete Alonso over Julio Rodriguez

The odds/bet: -160 ($48 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Our take: The most highly anticipated Home Run Derby first round contest will be a rematch of last year’s semifinals matchup between Alonso and Rodriguez.

Rodriguez took down the two-time defending champion Alonso, and while Rodriguez will have the backing of his home crowd in Seattle this time around, we’re going to favor the experience of Alonso here as he looks for retribution.

No Home Run Derby participant has matched Alonso’s level of success in this format, so we feel like there’s value in his first round price since the storyline of Rodriguez winning it in his home park is one that public bettors will tend to fall for.


The play: MLB Home Run Derby: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit longest home run

The odds/bet: +280 ($10 to win $28)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Our take: Vlad Jr. hasn’t hit as many home runs in 2023 as expected, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have success in tonight’s Home Run Derby.

Vlad Jr. put on a show the last time he participated in the derby back in 2019, and that included a record 40 home runs in the second round and several balls launched well over 450 feet.

It’s tough to predict whose bat will produce the most dramatic long ball, but we’ll bank on Vlad Jr. coming through considering that his swing is perfect for producing moonshots.


Sunday’s best bets

• CONCACAF Gold Cup, Jesus Ferreira anytime goal scorer (LOST $30)

• CONCACAF Gold Cup, USA over Canada (LOST $15.50)

Sunday’s profit/loss: -$45.50 (0-2)

Final total for the week: -$85.50 (4-10)

Total for July: -$45.50 (7-10)

Total for 2023: -$394.25 (157-172)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).


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