The 2023 Home Run Derby field is set, and all eight sluggers appear to offer some intrigue for bettors.
This year’s field has some players who put up insane performances in previous derbies such as two-time winner Pete Alonso, but there are several first-time participants who are looking to begin a new chapter of derby heroics.
Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Julio Rodriguez make up the returning participants, with Luis Robert Jr., Mookie Betts, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Adley Rutschman making up the first timers.
Sportsbooks have betting odds available for the eight-man field, so we evaluated each participant from a betting perspective.
Pete Alonso (+300)
Seed: No. 2
Home runs hit in 2023: 26 (T-3rd in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: 1st (2019, 2021)
Analysis: Alonso is the most seasoned Home Run Derby participant having been in the previous three contests and winning two of those three. He’s the odds-on favorite as a result, but he get a tough draw in the first round against Julio Rodriguez in what will be a rematch of last year’s semifinals matchup in which Rodriguez outslugged Alonso. While it’s usually not smart to bet on the favorite in an event like this, Alonso offers decent value at 3-to-1 considering no one else in the field has as much Home Run Derby experience, not to mention that he’s also one of the most successful sluggers in reality with 26 home runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450)
Seed: No. 6
Home runs hit in 2023: 13 (T-57th in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: 2nd (2019)
Analysis: Vlad Jr. returns to the derby for the first time since his epic 2019 performance in which he hit a record-setting 40 home runs in the semifinals and came up only one home run short of the title against Pete Alonso. Vlad’s power has been down slightly from his career norms so far in 2023, but he’ll have no issues putting on a show in the derby if 2019 is any indication. He draws Mookie Betts in the first round, which could be tough, so we’re not that high on Vlad from a betting standpoint considering he’s got the second-shortest odds in the field.
Luis Robert Jr. (+500)
Seed: No. 1
Home runs hit in 2023: 26 (T-3rd in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: First year participating
Analysis: Robert has taken his home run stroke to a new level in 2023, and he’s the No. 1 seed in the 2023 Home Run Derby as a result since he trails only Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson in regular season home runs. It’s tough to know how well someone’s swing will translate to the derby, but Robert appears to be on his way to a deep run in the contest considering he gets a favorable first round matchup, so we feel like he offers some value for bettors at +500.
Julio Rodriguez (+550)
Seed: No. 7
Home runs hit in 2023: 13 (57th in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: 2nd (2022)
Analysis: Rodriguez’s first Home Run Derby was memorable to say the least after knocking out the two-time defending champion Pete Alonso, but he came up one homer short of winning it all against Juan Soto and will be looking for retribution this time around. Rodriguez’s power numbers are down from last season, and he draws a tough first round matchup against Alonso to where we don’t feel too good about him from a betting standpoint considering how strong Alonso is in this format.
Adolis Garcia (+600)
Seed: No. 4
Home runs hit in 2023: 23 (6th in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: First year participating
Analysis: Garcia, much like Robert, has seen his power numbers skyrocket across the board in 2023 and should be exciting to watch as a first-time participant. He projects to advance out of the first round and will likely be matched up against Robert in the semis if so, but Garcia is more than capable of advancing deep and appears to offer decent value for bettors at +600.
Mookie Betts (+800)
Seed: No. 3
Home runs hit in 2023: 26 (3rd in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: First year participating
Analysis: Betts has surprisingly never participated in the Home Run Derby even though he’s been an MLB superstar for the previous five-plus seasons, but he’ll take a swing at it this season in what’s been a career-best start for him in the power department. Betts is known more for his five-tool ability as opposed to being a slugger, but he makes for sneaky play at +800 as someone who could easily reach the finals if he can pull the upset against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. early on.
Randy Arozarena (+900)
Seed: No. 5
Home runs hit in 2023: 16 (29th in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: First year participating
Analysis: Arozarena is a longshot to keep an eye on as a key piece to the mighty Rays lineup who’s got more power than most people realize. He’ll begin by facing a fellow first-time participant in Adolis Garcia, which profiles as a tough matchup considering how well Garcia has performed in 2023, but Arzoarena could be worth a flier considering his odds are significantly longer at +900.
Adley Rutschman (+1600)
Seed: No. 8
Home runs hit in 2023: 11 (88th in MLB)
Previous Home Run Derby high finish: First year participating
Analysis: Rutschman is an extremely valuable player in real life as an elite catcher, and he’s got some power to go with it even though he appears to be overmatched in the derby. The silver lining here for Rutschman is that he draws fellow first-time derby participant Luis Robert instead of Pete Alonso in the first round, but we aren’t enticed enough to take a shot with Rutschman even with long odds considering he’s hit less home runs in 2023 than anyone else in the field.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, July 9
