2023 NFL Draft over or under? See draft position odds for top prospects

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (15) passes against Vanderbilt in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

It’s fun to speculate about where the top prospects will be selected in the NFL Draft, and there are plenty of player draft position props to bet on this year.

There are draft position props for 24 players available at Caesars Sportsbook, with multiple prospects available at most positions.

We’ve got the odds for all 24 over/unders with analysis by position on which draft props could offer value for bettors.


NOTE: Taking the over means that a bettor is projecting a player to be selected later than the set prop. For example, taking Anthony Richardson over 4.5 means that he would have to be selected fifth or later in order to win the bet. Taking the under would require him to be selected fourth or earlier in order to win.


Anthony Richardson, Florida: O 4.5 (-400), U 4.5 (+300)

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee: O 30.5 (+140), U (-170)

Analysis: Most of the top-rated quarterback prospects don’t have props available since they’re expected to all be selected in the top four (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis), but Richardson is more of a wildcard as the fourth option on most boards. He could leapfrog one of three quarterbacks ranked ahead of him, but with it unlikely that he does, the value play appears to be Hooker’s over since he’s unlikely to be a first round selection unless a team trades up from the second round.


Bijan Robinson, Texas: O 15.5 (+300), U (-400)

Analysis: Robinson’s over looks appetizing due to the trend of teams devaluing the running back position, but the generational talent stamp from scouts has us thinking he’s going to be a top 10 selection. A team such as the Ravens could trade up to secure him even if the running back-needy Falcons and Eagles look elsewhere at picks eight and 10, so we’re going to stay away from this prop since the under requires laying too much juice.


Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State: O 12.5 (-300), U 12.5 (+240)

Jordan Addison, USC: O 22.5 (-200), U 22.5 (+165)

Zay Flowers, Boston College: O 22.5 (+130), U 22.5 (-160)

Quentin Johnston, TCU: O 25.5 (+100), U 25.5 (-130)

Analysis: The 2023 wide receiver class is weak compared to recent classes, but there could be value in Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s under since he profiles as a fit for the Texans at pick No. 12. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers both have props at 22.5, with Addison’s under being more appealing than Flowers’ thanks to the positive juice. Johnston’s stock has dropped enough to where there could be value with his over, but the receiver-needy Giants at pick 25 make it tough to feel confident since they could easily draft him.


Dalton Kincaid, Utah: O 23.5 (+100), U 23.5 (-130)

Michael Mayer, Notre Dame: O 23.5 (+125), U 23.5 (+175)

Analysis: One of Mayer or Kincaid will likely be selected before pick 23 considering there are teams picking in the teens such as the Packers that could use a tight end, so we’ll take the under with Mayer since the juice is more favorable on top of the fact that he profiles as the more complete tight end. Kincaid has more receiving upside, but we’ll lean toward the over for him since teams might be concerned about his blocking.


Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State: O 9.5 (+250), U 9.5 (-325)

Peter Skoronski, Northwestern: O 10.5 (+150), U 10.5 (-180)

Broderick Jones, Georgia: O 15.5 (+165), U 15.5 (-200)

Darnell Wright, Tennessee: O 17.5 (+150), U 17.5 (-180)

Analysis: Johnson appears to have leapfrogged Skoronski as the top tackle in the class, which makes Skoronski over 10.5 somewhat of a value since the Eagles could easily trade down from pick 10 or go in a different direction since they don’t have any glaring needs. The over on Jones is interesting due to Wright rising up boards and being selected over Jones in many mocks as the third offensive tackle off the board.


Will Anderson Jr., Alabama: O 3.5 (-140), U 3.5 (+110)

Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech: O 4.5 (+180), U 4.5 (-220)

Nolan Smith, Georgia: O 11.5 (+140), U 11.5 (-180)

Lukas Van Ness, Iowa: O 12.5 (-225), U 12.5 (+175)

Myles Murphy, Clemson: O 18.5 (-200), U 18.5 (+165)

Analysis: It’s been tricky determining if teams value Anderson or Wilson as the draft’s top edge rusher due to Wilson’s recent surge, but it could be worth taking a shot on both of their overs since three quarterbacks are still projected to go in the top four. The over on Smith is interesting, as well, with the Falcons rumored to be going with Bijan Robinson instead of an edge rusher. The over on Murphy feels like a safe play since his stock has been falling.


Jalen Carter, Georgia: O 6.5 (+240), U 6.5 (-300)

Bryan Bresee, Clemson: O 28.5 (-200), U 28.5 (+170)

Analysis: The over on Carter is arguably the best value on the board. While his upside could still see him be a top six pick, his stock has fallen enough to where several recent mock drafts have him landing either with the Bears at pick nine or the Eagles at pick 10. The same mocks have the Seahawks likely landing an edge rusher at fifth overall and the Lions projected to select a cornerback at sixth. Bresee’s under is enticing since could be a fit for the Lions at pick 18 or the Cowboys at pick 26.


Devon Witherspoon, Illinois: O 6.5 (-115), U 6.5 (-115)

Christian Gonzalez, Oregon: O 8.5 (-115), U 8.5 (-115)

Joey Porter Jr., Penn State: O 19.5 (-200), U 19.5 (+165)

Deonte Banks, Maryland: O 20.5 (+100), U 20.5 (-130)

Analysis: Witherspoon and Gonzalez will almost certainly go in the top half of the first round, and while there doesn’t appear to be much value in either of their props, the over on Gonzalez is interesting with several mocks having the Raiders selecting Paris Johnson Jr. at pick seven instead of a cornerback. The under on both Porter and Banks could be worth a shot since a cornerback is a major need for both the Commanders at pick 16 and the Steelers at pick 17.


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