Texas at Baylor odds preview: Point spread, prediction for Week 4 bout

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Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers celebtates his touchdown run during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Wyoming, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in Austin, Texas. Texas won 31-10. (AP Photo/Michael Thomas)

The third-ranked Texas Longhorns (3-0) began their Big XII conference play Saturday evening against the Baylor Bears (1-2) at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas.

Texas completed its non-conference schedule with a tougher-than-expected 31-10 win over Wyoming at DKR Memorial Stadium last Saturday. The game was tied 10-10 through three quarters before the Longhorns scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarterback. Quinn Ewers threw two touchdown passes and rushed for a third, but it was running back Jonathon Brooks that proved to be the difference with 21 carries for 164 yards.

The Longhorns didn’t get a lot going on offense, gaining just 316 yards with 13 first downs. Ewers threw for just 131 yards. This lethargic performance was probably expected coming a week after Texas went on the road and beat Alabama.

Baylor has had a rough start to the season with losses to Texas State and Utah. The Bears, however, took down an FCS program, Long Island University, 30-7. It’s been a rough go for quarterback Sawyer Robertson. The Mississippi State transfer is completing just 45.2 percent of his passes (28-of-62) for 444 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, Texas is enjoying its highest rankings since 2010. On FanDuel Sportsbook the Longhorns’ odds to win the College Football Playoff have improved to +1000 and they are the favorite to win the Big XII at -120. Ewers is a top-three Heisman betting favorite at +550, behind USC’s Caleb Williams (+350) and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (+480).

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears

Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. CT (FOX)

Point Spread: Texas -14.5

Over/Under: 49.5

Moneyline: Texas -630; Baylor +450

Analysis: This is the 113th game between the two in-state rivals with Texas leading the series 80-28-4. The Longhorns, however, held just a 7-6 advantage since 201. Texas won last year, 38-27, and appears in a good position to win again this year. Expect Baylor to be tough, the Bears showed great spirit against Utah two weeks ago, but Texas has too many weapons and a high level of confidence.

Prediction: Texas 30, Baylor 17

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