MLB run line play in Houston-Los Angeles and EPL props: Best Bets for August 11

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Manchester City's Erling Haaland runs during the English FA Community Shield final soccer match between Arsenal and Manchester City at Wembley Stadium in London, Sunday, Aug. 6, 2023. (AP Photo/David Cliff)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Friday, August 11:

TOP PLAY

The play: MLB, Houston Astros -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Angels

The odds: +114

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8:10 p.m. (MLB TV)

Our take: Houston took two of three from one of the MLB’s best teams, the Baltimore Orioles, earlier in the week. Thus, it goes without saying Dusty Baker’s squad is feeling good. The Astros return home to take on the Los Angeles Angels this evening in front of a packed Minute Maid Park. After all, it’s Justin Verlander’s home debut after he re-signed with the team just 10 days ago.

Verlander pitched well in his return to the defending World Series champions, although Houston’s bats were no help in the Bronx. However, it will likely be a different story tonight. Reid Detmers is on the bump for the Angels and he has struggled recently, especially against the Astros.

The 24-year-old has allowed eight runs in 11 innings of work against Houston. Furthermore, Detmers has struggled to put away left-handed hitters all season long. Lefties are hitting for a .312 average against Detmers, whereas right-handed hitters are hitting .234 against him. It’s worth noting that the Astros’ two biggest bats, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, are left-handed.

Houston has won three of the six meetings with the Angels this season by two runs or more. Therefore, it is worth taking a shot with the Astros -1.5 run line.

PREMIER LEAGUE SPREAD PICK

The play: EPL, Manchester City -1.5 at Burnley

The odds: -110

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 3 p.m. (USA Network)

Our take: It’s matchday one in the Premier League and the season gets kicked off with the treble winners against the newly promoted, reigning EFL Championship winners. There are a lot of storylines in this one, most notably Pep Guardiola (teacher) vs. Vincent Kompany (student) on the touchline.

Guardiola isn’t known for taking it easy on his coaching offspring — if anything, he works harder to ensure victory against them. Although there is a lot of buzz around Burnley and their ability to stay up this season, the Clarets aren’t quite to the level of competing with the world’s best side just yet.

Man City has a lot more talent up and down the pitch. Between Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva and others, the Citizens simply have too much firepower in attack to contain. Turf Moor will be rocking and this match will be a fun one, but I don’t see it being close after 90 minutes.

STRIKER SHARPSHOOTER PROP

The play: EPL, Haaland to record a shot on target in each half

The odds: +130

The book: Barstool Sportsbook

Our take: Speaking of Haaland, the reigning Golden Boot winner is in a bit of a funk as it relates to goals. He has failed to score in his last six matches for Man City, not that anybody is panicking, especially not oddsmakers. The Norwegian No. 9 is heavily juiced as an anytime goalscorer at most books.

We’re going to look in another direction for value for that reason. Guardiola and Kompany will both have their sides playing free-flowing, attacking football on a fine English Friday evening. There will be plenty of chances to go around, I expect Haaland to get on the end of a fair few of them and produce a shot on target in each half.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Thursday’s best bets

NFL: Texans at Patriots over 36.5 (LOST)

MLB parlay: Dodgers over Rockies, Red Sox over Royals (WON)

Thursday’s record: 1-1

Total for the week: 2-4, 2 pending

Total for August: 8-12, 2 pending

Total for 2023: 182-206, 2 pending

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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