How did moves at the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline impact the World Series odds market?

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, Oct. 28, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

The 2023 MLB Trade Deadline is officially behind us as the calendar turns into August. While there were no real landscape-shaking moves that took place around the league, a couple of teams made blockbuster additions to help boost their chances of winning the Fall Classic.

Let’s take a look at how some of the trade deadline transactions have impacted the futures market. We’ll do this by analyzing trends in betting lines in the market over the past week.

The chalk favorite Atlanta Braves have held steady at +330 since the last update. The Braves didn’t make any Earth-shattering moves in recent days. Instead, they added two complementary pieces (Brad Hand and Nicky Lopez) to bring depth into the squad as they gear up for another World Series run.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also held firm at around +500, despite bolstering their pitching staff. The Dodgers brought in some serious experience at the major league level with guys like Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Ryan Yarbrough. Los Angeles also added shortstop Amed Rosario in a trade from the Cleveland Guardians.

One of the biggest jumps atop the boards saw the Houston Astros climb all the way up to +550. They had 7/1 odds to repeat as World Series champions before making two moves to bring back a pair of familiar faces. Houston traded for starting pitcher Justin Verlander and reliever Kendall Graveman as they pull within striking distance of the Texas Rangers.

The aforementioned Rangers saw their odds move up ever so slightly from +900 to +850. Texas added a few new faces to its clubhouse in the form of Austin Hedges (C), Kevin Plawecki (C) and Chris Stratton (RHP). However, the notable acquisitions of high-caliber starters Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer have folks buzzing about the Rangers’ roster.

The Tampa Bay Rays were victims of teams like the Astros and Rangers strengthening heavily at the trade deadline. The Rays’ odds slipped to +850 after failing to match the might shown by their competitors in the market. Tampa Bay added Aaron Civale to strengthen its rotation, as well as catcher Alex Jackson and a few other arms. Ultimately, though, Las Vegas didn’t view these moves as enough to move the needle in the grand scheme of things.

The Baltimore Orioles were one of the only other teams to see their odds move significantly around the deadline. The Orioles missed out on the market’s biggest arms — such as Scherzer and Verlander — but they were able to add experience to their rotation in the form of Jack Flaherty. This, coupled with their AL-best 66 wins, saw their odds to win the World Series shoot from 18/1 to 12/1.

Odds to win the 2023 World Series

According to odds in the market as of August 2, 2023

Atlanta Braves (+330)

Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)

Houston Astros (+550)

Texas Rangers (+850)

Tampa Bay Rays (+850)

Baltimore Orioles (+1200)

Toronto Blue Jays (+1800)

Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)

San Francisco Giants (+2800)

Minnesota Twins (+2800)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+3000)

New York Yankees (+3000)

Milwaukee Brewers (+3500)

San Diego Padres (+4500)

Cincinnati Reds (+4500)

Los Angeles Angels (+6000)

Cleveland Guardians (+6000)

Miami Marlins (+6000)

Boston Red Sox (+6000)

Seattle Mariners (+7000)

Chicago Cubs (+8000)

St. Louis Cardinals (+15000)

New York Mets (+25000)

Chicago White Sox (+25000)

Pittsburgh Pirates (+30000)

Detroit Tigers (+50000)

Oakland Athletics (+200000)

Washington Nationals (+200000)

Colorado Rockies (+200000)

Kansas City Royals (+200000)


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