A couple of early morning plays in the Women’s World Cup: Best Bets for July 28

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Haiti's Betina Petit Frere, left, holds off England's Rachel Daly during the Women's World Cup Group D soccer match between England and Haiti in Brisbane, Australia, Saturday, July 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Tertius Pickard)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Friday, July 28:

TOP PLAY

The play: Women’s World Cup, China-Haiti OVER 2.5 goals

The odds: +125

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 7 a.m. (Fox Sports 1)

Our take: Less than half of the matches (nine of 24) at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup have seen the back of the net rattled three or more times. Low-scoring affairs were the storyline of the opening matches, but the second round is telling a different story.

Three of the last six games have gone over 2.5 total goals with teams playing more freely. There is also a desperate approach in some team’s cases as it’s now do-or-die at the Women’s World Cup. While there were only two goals scored in matches involving China and Haiti in the first round, both teams were on the wrong end of the results. Thus, it’s now or never for this Group D pair.

Haiti has played in nine matches this calendar year with all but two hitting over 2.5 goals. China has played in eight matches this calendar year with half of those seeing three or more goals scored.

These teams both desperately need to pick up three points or they’ll be packing their bags in this unforgiving tournament. That’ll bring out the best in both attacks, which should combine for three goals in this all-important bout.

A LOW-SCORING AFFAIR IN AUSTRALIA

The play: Women’s World Cup, Denmark-England UNDER 2.5 goals

The odds: -145

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 4:30 a.m. (Fox Sports 1)

Our take: I know, I know, I just got done gushing about how the second round of games means more goals because of the heightened emotions and need for results. However, these two sides will be feeling pretty good after picking up three points each on the first matchday. Thus, this is being viewed as the battle for the group’s top spot, both of these teams are sitting pretty atop the group.

Neither team looked particularly clinical in front of goal in their opening contests. England managed a 1-0 win over Haiti thanks to a goal via the penalty spot, whereas Denmark needed an injury-time winner to get by China. Nevertheless, a win is a win in the group stages of the World Cup.

The Lioness’ 10-0 drubbing of a far inferior Luxembourg aside, no England match has gone over 2.5 goals since July 31, 2022. Likewise, you have to go all the way back to February to find the last time a Denmark game hit the aforementioned over goal total.

This game will be more evenly-matched and wide-open than their previous clashes in Group D. However, that doesn’t always equate to goals. Expect a lone goal to get it done for either side — perhaps even a draw — but it’s hard to imagine both finding the back of the net more than once.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Thursday’s best bets

MLB: Cardinals money line over Cubs (LOST)

MLB: Mets over Nationals and under 9 runs (WON)

Thursday’s record: 1-1

Total for the week: 2-5, 1 pending

Total for July: 20-27, 1 pending

Total for 2023: 170-190, 1 pending

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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