Cardinals-Marlins run line play, plus an underdog play in Rockies-Astros: July 4 best bets

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Miami Marlins' Jorge Soler, left, celebrates in the dugout with Bryan De La Cruz, right, after scoring on a double hit by Jesus Sanchez during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Monday, July 3, 2023, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday, July 4:

TOP PLAY

The play: MLB: Marlins (-1.5) over Cardinals

The odds/bet: +122 ($30 to win $36)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 1:10 p.m. (MLB Extra Innings)

Our take: The Marlins had won five games in a row prior to being swept by the MLB-best Braves, but they appear to have gotten back on track against the struggling Cardinals.

The Marlins were able to squeak out a close victory against the Cardinals last night, and we expect them to win more convincingly today considering they’ve got a significant advantage on the mound with ascending starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo.

Luzardo is having a career-best season unlike Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright, so the Marlins lineup should be able to score enough to win by multiple runs against Wainwright and the shaky Cardinals pitching staff.

ROCKIES UPSET

The play: MLB, Rockies (money line) over Astros

The odds/bet: +158 ($10 to win $15.80)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 4:10 p.m. (MLB Extra Innings)

Our take: The Rockies haven’t inspired much confidence recently, but we see today’s matchup against the Astros as a potential upset opportunity.

The Astros will be riding the high of an epic 12-11 victory over the division rival Rangers, whereas the Rockies had a day off to recharge and will have one of their more reliable starting pitchers on the mound in Kyle Freeland.

Freeland’s had an up-and-down season, but he should have a solid enough outing away from Coors Field against an Astros lineup without Yordan Alvarez to where we’ll take a shot on the underdog.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Monday’s best bets

• MLB: Twins (-1.5) over Royals (WON $30)

• MLB: Orioles (money line) over Yankees, plus OVER 8.5 runs (LOST $10)

Monday’s profit/loss: +$20 (1-1)

Total for the week: +$20 (1-1)

Total for July: +$60 (4-1)

Total for 2023: -$288.75 (154-163)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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