Dominance exists in many forms in the sports world, but few have mastered their competition to the degree of Joey Chestnut, who is a heavy favorite again for the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4 at Cooney Island in Brooklyn.
And before you say to yourself, “Isn’t this a sports picks website?” rest assured that yes, sportsbooks are indeed taking wagers on which contestant can eat the most hot dogs on our Independence Day. Don’t you just love America?
The safe play is Chestnut, who is a whopping -3000 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. These odds imply a 96.8% chance that Chestnut will win, which is no surprise considering he has won 15 of the past 16 years and has the world record at 76 hot dogs within the 10-minute time frame.
Of course, backing Chestnut won’t yield much profit; His -3000 odds means you’d have to wager $3,000 just to profit $100.
If you want to go with someone else, the next-best odds are on 2021 runner-up Geoffrey Esper at +1400 and Australian qualifier James Webb and plus Nick Wehry at +3000.
The women’s contest features an even bigger favorite in Miki Sudo, a New York native who has won eight of the past nine years. The only time she didn’t was in 2021, which she missed because she was pregnant.
Sudo’s odds in the market are -4000, with Michelle Lesco — the 2021 winner in Sudo’s absence — at +2000 and Larell Marie Mele at +2300.
With such big favorites, more enticing perhaps is to guess the total number of hot dogs eaten by each competitor. Remember, Chestnut’s record is 76, and FanDuel is offering odds of +350 that he’ll break the record.
Chestnut’s over/under with even odds on both side is 72½, meaning the market expects him to fall just short of a new record.
Esper’s over/under in the market is 49½, with even -115 odds on each side, to give you an idea of how much Chestnut is expected to win by. Webb’s over/under is 42½.
On the women’s side, Sudo’s record is 48½ from 2020. She ate 40 in her return last year, but she’s expected to inch closer to the record this July 4th, with the market placing her over/under at 43½ — with -130 juice on the over. Lesco’s over/under is 28½. Sudo has +300 odds to break her record.
The women’s contest begins at 11 a.m. Tuesday, with the men’s scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Both are televised on ESPN.
