NBA Finals Game 3 pick – Denver Nuggets or host Miami Heat? Best Bets for June 7

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Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, center, tries to get past Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) during the second half of Game 2 of basketball's NBA Finals, Sunday, June 4, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday, June 7:

TOP PLAY

The play: NBA Finals Game 3, Heat +3.5 over Nuggets

The odds: -112

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8:30 p.m. (ABC)

Our take: My first inclination was to take the Nuggets – no matter what the spread was, and if the money line was low enough, take them there as well. But not only has this spread jumped by two full points from the original -1.5 earlier in the week, everyone and their Aunt Mabel, Grandma Alice and Drunk Joe at the bar is betting on Denver.

You know what we always say: When nearly the entire betting public is going one way, we take the road less traveled. (I bet Robert Frost would have been quite the winning player.)

Miami was a big surprise in Game 2, but looking back, maybe they shouldn’t have been. They did what they have done throughout the playoffs with possibly the best coach in the NBA in Erik Spoelstra. They let Nikola Jokic do his thing by scoring, but his assists were way down – covering him like a blanket to not allow the easy pass.

Sure, Denver will try to change that tonight, and we certainly like Jokic’s over 9.5 assists (not enough to play it at the current odds), but the Heat adjust maybe better than any team the Nuggets have faced since the postseason began.

Let Aunt Mabel and Drunk Joe put their weekly earnings on Denver, and we’ll ride the other side.

TUNING UP FOR THE US OPEN

The play: PGA Canadian Open, Tyrell Hatton to finish in the top 10

The odds: +105

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: Thursday through Sunday on Golf Channel and ESPN+ on Saturday and Sunday on CBS

Our take: In the week leading up to the US Open, don’t think the cream of the crop won’t be looking to tune up their game as best they can before the season’s third major.

And Hatton quietly has been outstanding with five consecutive top-20 finishes and two of those in the top five. If you’d like to play it safer and bet him top 20, we won’t stop you, but we think there’s better value in a top-10 finish.

This Oakdale course in North York, Ontario, will favor both the longer hitter and one who has been a good approach hitter, and Hatton has done well in both of those categories. If his putter is working well, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon, and you can get him at +1100 in that department just about anywhere.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Tuesday’s best bets

MLB money line: Guardians over Red Sox (LOSE)

MLB total: Diamondbacks-Nationals over 9.5 runs (WIN)

Tuesday’s record: 1-1

Total for the week: 1-3

Total for June: 5-7

Total for 2023: 126-140

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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