Betting on NFL win totals before training camp begins normally isn’t recommended, but there are trends shaping up that make some teams worth betting on early for 2023.
Most free agents have now signed and the NFL Draft is complete. Therefore, the time is now to start sizing up which teams have rosters capable of improving upon their 2022 results and which will likely take a step back.
Another key factor to look at is each team’s schedule, as it’s important to know the quality of opponents for each team and when they’ll be playing them.
We’ve evaluated the current win total numbers at FanDuel Sportsbook for all 32 teams and come up with five teams that we could be worth betting on now since these numbers can change between now and the start of the season.
Best value
Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins (+100)
The Raiders’ offseason is off to a rough start, to say the least. There’s major uncertainty surrounding the status of newly signed starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo after a failed physical followed by foot surgery. The injury has put Garoppolo’s Week 1 status in question, so the time is now to take the under on Las Vegas’ win total before it drops lower. If you’re not a fan of 6.5 wins, you can get the Raiders at 7.5 wins for juiced odds elsewhere in the market. They appear to be the weakest link in the loaded AFC West after failing to upgrade their defense enough to pose a serious threat, even if Garoppolo is healthy.
Over play No. 1
Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 wins (+106)
The Ravens’ defense came to life down the stretch last season, and they now appear to have a strong offense to go with it having signed Lamar Jackson to an extension and given him plenty of weapons to work with under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The OC change should lead to more creative play design and less chance of Jackson getting injured since he’ll be in the pocket more, so we’ll take the over — even though the Ravens are in the loaded AFC North — since they appear to be one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL.
Over Play No. 2
Carolina Panthers OVER 7.5 wins (-114)
The Panthers boldly traded up to first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Bryce Young. While they likely won’t be Super Bowl contenders right away, they should be improved from last season. Young was the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, and the Panthers signed plenty of veteran weapons to help him out. They also beefed up what was becoming a solid defense in the second half of 2022. We feel like they’ll be able to improve upon last season’s seven-win mark considering how weak the NFC South is this year.
Under Play No. 1
Green Bay Packers UNDER 7.5 wins (-105)
The Packers are officially in rebuild mode after trading Aaron Rodgers and turning to Jordan Love at quarterback. Their lack of free-agent moves reflects that they don’t expect to contend this season. The NFC North isn’t great, but with the Lions, Vikings and Bears all having win totals of 7.5 or above, the Packers could easily end up struggling much like they did when Rodgers took over in 2008 since the lack of talent surrounding Love will likely result in an inconsistent season.
Under Play No. 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 6.5 wins (-142)
The Buccaneers appear to be in even worse shape than the Packers after also losing a legendary quarterback in Tom Brady, as a once attractive destination for free agents turned into the opposite with several key pieces opting to leave. The state of the NFC South could help the Bucs stay afloat early on, but the fact that their quarterback situation is among the worst in the NFL will likely keep them at six wins or below along with their formerly dominant defense not being what it once was.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 6, 2023
