The Cleveland Guardians don’t have favorable odds moving forward in 2023

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Cleveland Guardians' Amed Rosario swings at a pitch from the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning of a baseball game, Monday, May 29, 2023, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

It is time to start seriously talking about the MLB standings with the calendar about to flip to June. Despite sitting just 3.5 games back in the American League Central, the Cleveland Guardians don’t have favorable odds moving forward in the 2023 MLB season.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Minnesota Twins are -300 favorites to win the AL Central. The Guardians are second in the market with a price of +360, followed by the Detroit Tigers (+1300), Chicago White Sox (+1700), and Kansas City Royals (+24000) in that division race.

Cleveland has an implied probability of 21.74% of winning the division with a value of +360. The Guardians won the AL Central last year with a 92-70 record before losing in the ALDS to end their season. They have finished first or second in the division in every season since 2016.

Thanks to their pedigree, the Guardians are still getting enough respect in other MLB futures markets.

Cleveland is +3500 to win the American League pennant at FanDuel, which is 11th on the odds board. The Tampa Bay Rays pace that market at +270, but the Twins are not far behind at +800. All other AL Central foes are 150/1 or longer, meaning oddsmakers respect Cleveland’s upside in the postseason.

Speaking of which, the Guardians are listed at 65/1 to win the World Series in a market led by the Los Angeles Dodgers and their listing of +470. After Cleveland, all other teams are considered 110/1 or longer. That means the Guardians are likely considered the best long shot at this point in the season.

Of course, if you do place a futures bet on the Guardians, one has to believe better days are ahead for this offense. Cleveland is currently last in the MLB with 183 total runs, as the Tigers are 29th with 12 more runs scored. The Guardians are 28th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage and 30th in wRC+ as of late May.

Unsurprisingly, the lack of offense has led to a league-best under rate on totals. The Guardians are 34-17-2 for an under rate of 66.7%, which paces the MLB at this point in the season. The San Diego Padres are the only other team with better than a 60% under rate.

As for the run line, Cleveland is just 23-30 at covering that number so far this season. The 43.4% cover rate is 24th in the league, with a team like the Royals sitting last with a 34.6% clip.

The Guardians will continue their series with the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday before wrapping it up with Wednesday’s finale at 3:05 p.m. ET.

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