NFL Draft 2023: The top 10 players to be chosen Thursday according to the odds

0
1533
Texas Tech linebacker Tyree Wilson (19) is seen during an NCAA football game against TCU on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Fort Worth, Texas. TCU won 34-24. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)

There have been thousands of mock drafts posted over the past 2-plus months, Mock 2.0s and 3.4s and 5.whatevers. But when it comes down to it, usually the sportsbooks are more correct than any mock draft ever written.

And so, here, we have channeled our inner Nostradamus with help from odds in the market and we present the top 10, according to the odds. Now, Nostradamus told us he is good but not good enough to predict trades. So when that first move is made inside the top 10, all bets are off. (Pardon the pun.)

NOTE: Odds are based on hypothetical $100 bets. If a player is listed as -150, that means a bettor would have to make a $150 wager to win $100 (or $15 to win $10). If a player is listed as +150, a bettor would have to bet $100 to win $150 (or $10 to win $15).

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (-1000)

We think by now, it would be one of the massive shocks in recent draft memory if Frank Reich and company did not take Young first. They traded up for a reason, and despite the recent rise of Kentucky’s Will Levis, we think the Panthers are smarter than Reddit.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Levis (+400), CJ Stroud (+2000)

2. Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (+140)

Nostradamus is kind of on a ledge here, as very few mock drafts have Wilson going in this spot. That popular name of Levis shows up plenty here, as well, but the Texans couldn’t be that dumb, could they? Anyway, we simply go by what the odds tell us, and Wilson makes sense in the fact that he has been rising up the mock boards the past couple of weeks, and if the Texans want local flavor, it is reasonable to think they could go with him here.

Also, if there is going to be an early trade, this is the most likely spot.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Levis (+170), Will Anderson (+450), CJ Stroud (+500), Bryce Young (+550)

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson, DE, Alabama (+250)

Anderson is No. 2 in many mock drafts, but we don’t want to be repetitive, so we won’t harp on that. (Oh wait, I guess we just did.) In all seriousness, if Anderson isn’t chosen by the Texans (or whoever trades up into that spot), it would be really tough to see the Cardinals passing on this talent.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Tyree Wilson (+250), CJ Stroud (+300), Anthony Richardson (+600), Will Levis (+700), Jalen Carter (+1200)

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (+130)

Despite what Reddit says, the oddsmakers think Levis will fall to 4. One thing we know is if the Colts don’t trade up, it would be a major upset if a quarterback isn’t selected in this position. But would this team really pass on CJ Stroud, who has been the consensus No. 2 QB for most of the past two months (even No. 1 for a brief period)? Well, they are the Colts, and they haven’t had a ton of luck at this position since Peyton Manning left.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Stroud (+200), Anthony Richardson (+275), Tyree Wilson (+1000), Will Anderson (+1000)

5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia (+375)

Well, there are lower odds on Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson, but they have already gone in our “odds mock draft,” so we must go with Carter here. Before being involved in a car crash that killed two people, Carter was expected to go No. 2. We’re not going to get into his “no contest” plea or the probation he will serve going forward, but will his potential employers? This could be great value on odds here, as Pete Carroll has been known to take chances on players with big-time talent.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Anderson (+165), Wilson (+265), Anthony Richardson (+500), CJ Stroud (+650)

6. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (+110)

This is as close to a sure thing in a sixth pick as one will ever see. If the Lions don’t trade out of this spot, it would be a surprise to see them not take the top defensive back on the board here. That especially is true, considering Witherspoon playing in the Big Ten … oh, and the fact the Lions ranked 29th in overall defense last season and 30th in passing defense.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Jalen Carter (+350), Tyree Wilson (+600), Will Anderson (+600), Christian Gonzalez (+650), CJ Stroud (+1000)

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (+300)

The Black and Silver are one of the true mysteries in this draft, if for no other reason than they have a plethora of needs. But that being said, if a team has the chance to take the top-rated offensive lineman at No. 7, that seems like quite a bargain. That is if one of the big names doesn’t fall down to this spot.

For what it’s worth, the NFL Mock Draft Database has Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez going here, and if area bias means anything, that may be a better value.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Gonzalez (+350), Devon Witherspoon (+400), Peter Skoronski (+650), Tyree Wilson (+800), CJ Stroud (+900), Jalen Carter (+1000), Will Anderson (+1000)

8, Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (+200)

This has been a big thing the past week or so, as Robinson has soared from about a consensus No. 20 or so up to the Falcons at 8. We understand the Dirty Birds have a great need at the position, but enough to pass up on hometown edge rusher Nolan Smith from Georgia or someone else at the position like Lukas Van Ness from Iowa?

We shall see. Note: The Falcons were second-to-last in 2022 in sacks with just over 1 per game. You do the math.

Others at the top of the odds chart: Smith (+400), Van Ness (+500), Christian Gonzalez (+650), Jalen Carter (+750), CJ Stroud (+850), Devon Witherspoon (+900)

NOTE: Picks 9 and 10 are based on oddsmakers’ projections of team positions drafted, as they do not list odds for those specific picks.

9. Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (Offensive line: -170)

With Paris Johnson already being off the board, the Bears do the right thing and get protection for their franchise, QB Justin Fields, in this spot. If Fields is ever going to become an above-average passer (of course, he’s already an elite runner), they have to get him some protection.

Only three other teams in football allowed more sacks than Chicago (Broncos, Colts and Rams), and it would kind of be a surprise if this isn’t the direction this team goes in (barring a trade).

Others at the top of the odds chart: DL +180, DB +700, WR +1000

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee (Offensive line: -275)

OK, Nostradamus, we have been with you throughout this whole thing, but this one is a toughie. According to the odds, Wright is the third-highest-rated offensive lineman on the board, and obviously, the first two have already been chosen. However, Wright’s over/under draft position is 15.5, although that is well juiced to the under.

The consensus mock draft has Lukas Van Ness going here, and if you were to believe that instead, a better bet might be to bet Philly taking a DE here at +225 or even RB at +800 if Bijan Robinson were to fall in their laps.

Others at the top of the odds chart: DL +225, RB +800, DB +900

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here