Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Thursday, April 20:
TOP PLAY
The play: NBA playoffs parlay, Warriors ML over Kings and OVER 240.5
The odds: +159
The book: FanDuel Sportsbook
Time/TV: 10 p.m. (TNT)
Our take: This feels like the classic opportunity within a playoff series where one team is simply more desperate than the other. The Kings are riding high after winning the first two games in Sacramento. The defending champion Warriors are without the suspended Draymond Green, but they do have one of the NBA’s best home-court advantages and the sense of desperation that comes with being down in the series.
Despite all of this, Golden State is just a 6-point favorite. Easy call, right? Maybe. I’m not sold on the spread, because the Kings are clearly a bad matchup for the Warriors, and the loss of their best defensive player in Green won’t help against the explosive Sacramento offense.
I’m going to bite on the money line and parlay it with this game speeding by an admittedly high total. Golden State is going to push the pace out of desperation, and Sacramento is going to push the pace out of instinct. The result? Lots of points and a close-ish Warriors win.
CLASSIC NATIONAL LEAGUE MATCHUP
The play: MLB, Cubs money line over Dodgers
The odds: -116
The book: FanDuel Sportsbook
Time/TV: 7:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
Our take: The juggernaut Dodgers of the past five seasons or so (at least in the regular season) haven’t showed up much this year. The L.A. lineup has survived fine without the departed Trea Turner thus far, although with catcher Will Smith also on the shelf with a concussion, the Dodgers are starting to have a few problems scoring runs.
The bigger issue, however, is that the Los Angeles pitching staff hasn’t been nearly as dominant as we’ve become accustomed to. The Dodgers are just 21st in the Major Leagues in strikeouts and rank outside the top 10 in run prevention, numbers hardly befitting a staff that typically is among MLB’s best in both categories. Tonight’s starter, Michael Grove, has struggled in his three starts, allowing 13 earned runs in just 13 innings.
He did actually pitch well on Saturday against these Cubs, but that’s the other half of this equation: The Cubbies are much better than you might think. They are tied for fourth in the Majors in both runs scored (even with the Dodgers, actually) and in runs allowed. It’s not a fluke that Chicago took two out of three in L.A. over the weekend — and were a ninth-inning Dodgers rally away from a sweep. They’ve already also won series against American League contenders Texas and Seattle this year and have the experienced Jameson Taillon on the mound tonight.
Dodger Dogs are delicious, but the Dodgers as dogs is a rare thing to see. Go with the line and bet the favorite.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NBA playoffs: Grizzlies money line over Lakers (WON)
PGA Zurich Classic: Si Woo Kim/Tom Kim to finish top 10 (PENDING)
Wednesday’s record: 1-0, 1 pending
Total for the week: 3-2, 1 pending
Total for April: 16-21, 1 pending
Total for 2023: 81-91, 1 pending
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
