The Bristol Dirt race returns to the NASCAR Cup Series schedule for the third-straight season, and it’s one of the more intriguing events considering as evidenced by the betting odds being shaken up.
Kyle Larson as the chalk favorite isn’t a surprise, but the fact that a struggling driver like Chase Briscoe is among the favorites instead of his surging teammate Kevin Harvick shows that the switch to the dirt track surface makes this race tricky to approach from a betting perspective.
The conventional way to play it would be to bet on drivers with extensive dirt racing backgrounds such as Larson and Briscoe, but the goal here is to find value, so we’re picking some trustworthy veteran drivers that we feel aren’t getting enough respect from the oddsmakers.
We’ve got our weekly “Fast Five” picks for Bristol Dirt down below along with the full field odds for all 37 cars in the race courtesy of odds in the market:
FAST FIVE PICKS
Chalk play
Kyle Busch (+1000 to win)
Busch is the defending winner of this Bristol Dirt race, and he should be among the leaders once again this season considering that his new team ran up front here last year with Tyler Reddick. While Reddick was an intriguing play due to his dirt racing background, we felt like Busch offered the most value among the favorites at 10-to-1 considering how strong he runs at Bristol no matter the surface.
Best value
Joey Logano (+1200 to win)
Logano won the inaugural Bristol Dirt race despite not having much of a dirt racing background, which goes to show that talented drivers with strong equipment are still smart plays here even though the field is more wide open than usual. We’ll take the 12-to-1 value with Logano considering he knows how to get to the front and won’t be afraid to use his front bumper if that’s what it takes to get a win.
Trending up
Daniel Suarez (+2000 to win)
Suarez has been one of the strongest Cup Series drivers at Bristol Dirt over the past two seasons having led over 50 laps in both races and recording a top-five finish. While he didn’t win either time, those are the kind of results we’re looking for when trying to find value in a future winner, so we’ll take our chances with Suarez here in hopes that he’ll take the next step and reach victory lane.
Mid-pack play
Brad Keselowski (+2500 to win)
Keselowski hasn’t been among the top contenders at Bristol Dirt in his two starts, but he’s run respectively in both races and could be in line to take a step forward this season considering how his performance has improved overall in 2023. We’ll take a shot on Keselowski at 25-to-1 since he’s shown much better speed and offers value as someone who’s won before at the traditional Bristol.
Longshot play
Michael McDowell (+6500 to win)
It was tempting to go with dirt racing specialist Jonathan Davenport as the long shot play, but he could have trouble adapting to the Cup Series in what will be his first career start, so we’re going with an under-the-radar veteran in McDowell. Finding consistency at Bristol Dirt has proved challenging for drivers, but McDowell ran well in both of his starts and could exceed expectations depending on how strategy plays out.
2023 FOOD CITY DIRT RACE FULL FIELD ODDS
Lines from odds in the market
+450 to win
Kyle Larson (+140 top three, -150 top five, -500 top 10)
+600 to win
Tyler Reddick (+180 top three, +100 top five, -250 top 10)
Christopher Bell (+180 top three, +100 top five, -200 top 10)
+900 to win
Chase Briscoe (+230 top three, +120 top five, -200 top 10)
+1000 to win
Kyle Busch (+300 top three, +140 top five, -175 top 10)
+1200 to win
Joey Logano (+340 top three, +170 top five, -150 top 10)
William Byron (+340 top three, +170 top five, -140 top 10)
+1400 to win
Ryan Blaney (+425 top three, +180 top five, -135 top 10)
+1500 to win
Denny Hamlin (+425 top three, +190 top five, -120 top 10)
+2000 to win
Alex Bowman (+550 top three, +250 top five, -120 top 10)
Ross Chastain (+550 top three, +250 top five, -110 top 10)
Martin Truex Jr. (+500 top three, +250 top five, -110 top 10)
Daniel Suarez (+550 top three, +250 top five, -110 top 10)
+2500 to win
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+600 top three, +275 top five, +100 top 10)
Brad Keselowski (+800 top three, +400 top five, +125 top 10)
+3000 to win
Kevin Harvick (+900 top three, +450 top five, +140 top 10)
+3500 to win
Chris Buescher (+1000 top three, +475 top five, +140 top 10)
+4500 to win
Jonathan Davenport (+1100 top three, +575 top five, +170 top 10)
+5000 to win
Ty Gibbs (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
Bubba Wallace (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
Austin Dillon (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
Josh Berry (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
+6000 to win
Ryan Preece (+1400 top three, +650 top five, +200 top 10)
+6500 to win
Michael McDowell (+1500 top three, +700 top five, +220 top 10)
+7500 to win
Justin Haley (+1700 top three, +750 top five, +250 top 10)
Todd Gilliland (+1700 top three, +750 top five, +250 top 10)
Ty Dillon (+1700 top three, +750 top five, +250 top 10)
+10000 to win
A.J. Allmendinger (+3000 top three, +1100 top five, +450 top 10)
+15000 to win
Erik Jones (+3000 top three, +1100 top five, +450 top 10)
Austin Cindric (+3000 top three, +1100 top five, +450 top 10)
+20000 to win
Aric Almirola (+4000 top three, +1400 top five, +550 top 10)
+25000 to win
Noah Gragson (+6000 top three, +1800 top five, +800 top 10)
+30000 to win
Harrison Burton (+6000 top three, +1800 top five, +800 top 10)
+50000 to win
Corey LaJoie (+10000 top three, +2500 top five, +1200 top 10)
+200000 to win
J.J. Yeley (+30000 top three, +6000 top five, +3000 top 10)
+500000 to win
B.J. McLeod (+75000 top three, +10000 top five, +7500 top 10)
Cody Ware (+75000 top three, +10000 top five, +7500 top 10)
