The NASCAR Cup Series will be back to one of its traditional tracks this week at Richmond, which tends to produce more tame racing compared to last week’s chaos at Circuit of the Americas.
The trend at recent Richmond races is that experience wins out, with seasoned veterans Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick going to victory lane here last season, so we decided to go with more chalk picks than usual for this week’s “Fast Five.”
We’ve still got a couple of longer shots thrown in, which we’ve got down below along with the full field odds:
FAST FIVE PICKS
Chalk play
Kevin Harvick (+600 to win)
Harvick has been one of the top drivers at Richmond over the years and has been knocking on the door of victory lane early on this season. Harvick’s shown enough speed in his farewell season to where it’s only a matter of time before he records his first win, and this week provides an ample opportunity for him considering he’s won here four times throughout his career, including last season.
Trending up
Martin Truex Jr. (+750 to win)
Truex has been Mr. Richmond in recent seasons having won three of the past eight races here, but it’s been over a year now since he’s reached victory lane in a points-paying Cup Series race. We’ll take our chances on Truex finding his way to the front this week in what’s shaping up to be a race that will favor veterans like him who are patient throughout the day and have enough to prevail at the end.
Best value
Joey Logano (+1500 to win)
Logano isn’t the first name that comes to mind when thinking of drivers who run well at Richmond, but he’s had success here before and led plenty of laps in last season’s fall race. While it will be tough for Logano against Harvick and the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, he’s a threat to win on almost any track and offers extreme value at 15-to-1 considering how fast he’s been this season.
Mid-pack play
Alex Bowman (+2000 to win)
Bowman has had a career-best start to a season in 2023, but he doesn’t have a win to show for it. Bowman used to have the issue of not being consistent despite being able to win, but he appears to have taken a major step forward this season to where a victory feels inevitable, and it could come as soon as this week considering he’s won here at Richmond before.
Longshot play
Chase Briscoe (+4500 to win)
Briscoe hasn’t had a strong start to 2023, but that’s likely due to the fact that the Cup Series hasn’t had a little short-track racing action so far, which is his strength as a driver. Briscoe ran well at the short oval in Phoenix earlier this season and was fairly competitive at Richmond last season, so we’ll take our chances on him as a 45-to-1 longshot.
TOYOTA OWNERS 400 FULL FIELD ODDS
+550 to win
William Byron (+180 top three finish, -120 top five, -400 top 10)
Kyle Larson (+180 top three, +100 top five, -250 top 10)
+600 to win
Kevin Harvick (+180 top three, -120 top five, -400 top 10)
+750 to win
Christopher Bell (+225 top three, +115 top five, -220 top 10)
Martin Truex Jr. (+225 top three, +115 top five, -185 top 10)
+800 to win
Denny Hamlin (+225 top three, +120 top five, -190 top 10)
+1000 to win
Kyle Busch (+300 top three, +140 top five, -160 top 10)
+1500 to win
Ryan Blaney (+425 top three, +190 top five, -145 top 10)
Joey Logano (+425 top three, +200 top five, -140 top 10)
Tyler Reddick (+475 top three, +220 top five, -110 top 10)
+1700 to win
Ross Chastain (+475 top three, +220 top five, -115 top 10)
+2000 to win
Alex Bowman (+550 top three, +250 top five, -110 top 10)
+2200 to win
Brad Keselowski (+550 top three, +250 top five, +100 top 10)
+3000 to win
Daniel Suarez(+800 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
Chris Buescher (+800 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
Josh Berry (+800 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
+4500 to win
Chase Briscoe (+1100 top three, +550 top five, +180 top 10)
+5000 to win
Aric Almirola (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
Bubba Wallace (+1200 top three, +600 top five, +180 top 10)
+6500 to win
Ryan Preece (+1500 top three, +700 top five, +220 top 10)
+7500 to win
Austin Dillon (+1700 top three, +750 top five, +200 top 10)
Austin Cindric (+1700 top three, +750 top five, +250 top 10)
Ty Gibbs (+1700 top three, 750 top five, +250 top 10)
+10000 to win
Erik Jones (+2500 top three, +900 top five, +300 top 10)
A.J. Allmendinger (+2500 top three, +900 top five, +300 top 10)
+20000 to win
Chandler Smith (+4000 top three, +1400 top five, +475 top 10)
Michael McDowell (+4000 top three, +1400 top five, +500 top 10)
Noah Gragson (+4000 top three, +1400 top five, +500 top 10)
+30000 to win
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+6000 top three, +1800 top five, +800 top 10)
+40000 to win
Harrison Burton (+8000 top three, +2200 top five, +1000 top 10)
Justin Haley (+8000 top three, +2200 top five, +1000 top 10)
+100000 to win
Corey LaJoie (+20000 top three, +3500 top five, +1000 top 10)
+150000 to win
Todd Gilliland (+30000 top three, +4000 top five, +3000 top 10)
+200000 to win
Ty Dillon (+40000 top three, +5000 top five, +4000 top 10)
+250000 to win
Anthony Alfredo (+45000 top three, +6000 top five, +5000 top 10)
+500000 to win
JJ Yeley (+75000 top three, +10000 top five, +7500 top 10)
Cody Ware (+75000 top three, +10000 top five, +7500 top 10)
