The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season was one to remember, and we’re already back to having action in 2023 starting with the much-anticipated Daytona 500
The 2022 NASCAR season was a special one for me personally having gotten to publish my “Fast Five” picks each week, which proved challenging considering how much the Cup Series changed with the introduction of the Next Gen car.
I was able to pick more winners correctly as the season went on, and the goal is to build upon that now that I have a full season of making picks under my belt along with more data to evaluate drivers performance in Next Gen equipment.
I’ll once again be picking the five drivers that I feel offer the most value to win each week from a betting perspective along with the full list of driver odds for the race winner, top three finish, top five and top 10 finish.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
FAST FIVE PICKS
Chalk play: Kyle Busch (+1200 to win)
Busch has had a series of heartbreaking Daytona 500 defeats over the years, having never won in almost 20 years of trying, but he’s more than capable of running up front and should be rejuvenated this season driving for a new team for the first time in 15 years. Busch joined a Richard Childress Racing team that usually always brings strong cars to Daytona, and he showed that he’s still got skill after nearly winning the Clash at the Coliseum exhibition race, even though had had to claw his way back from the rear of the field after a spin.
Trending up: Bubba Wallace (+1600 to win)
It’s hard to consistently run up front at Daytona, but Wallace has done exactly that in his young career having recorded four top fives at the track, including a second-place finish in last year’s 500. He improved his performance down the stretch last season, and he should be able to build upon that with an on-the-rise 23XI Racing and reach victory lane as early as Sunday considering how well he’s ran at super-speedways and that Toyota teams tend to run well at Daytona.
Best value: Tyler Reddick (+2500 to win)
Speaking of 23XI Racing, Reddick is now teammates with Wallace over there and is set to have the most successful Daytona 500 of his career. Reddick knows what it takes to go the distance having won three times last season to where he should be around at the end of what tends to be a war of attrition. Reddick will be in strong equipment as he looks to make a strong first impression in his first season with Toyota, making him an excellent value at +2500 since he’s got as much skill as any driver in the field.
Mid-pack play: Michael McDowell (+3500 to win)
McDowell normally runs around the middle of the pack and is being valued as such even though he’s a former Daytona 500 champion. That makes him an excellent value play to reach victory once again since his team, Front Row Motorsports, tends to find their way to the front even though they’re one of the smaller teams in the Cup Series. They tend to do more with less though, especially at superspeedways having won multiple times at Daytona and Talladega, so McDowell is worth a flier at +3500.
Longshot play: Corey LaJoie (+10000 to win)
Super-speedway races at Daytona and Tallaedga are recipes for producing Cinderella stories, as teams such as LaJoie’s Spire Motorsports can hang with the powerful teams such as Hendrick Motorsports. This makes a driver like LaJoie worth a look even though he’s an extreme long shot that normally isn’t anywhere close to sniffing victory lane, but he proved last season that he could lead laps even though he’s in less than stellar equipment. LaJoie would make for an excellent underdog story, and winning the Daytona 500 could be the break he needs to take a huge step forward in his NASCAR career.
DAYTONA 500 FULL FIELD ODDS
+1000 to win
Joey Logano (+300 top three, +180 top five, +100 top 10)
+1100 to win
Denny Hamlin (+320 top three finish, +160 top five, -130 top 10)
+1200 to win
Ryan Blaney (+300 top three, +140 top five, -130 top 10)
Chase Elliott (+320 top three, +160 top five, -130 top 10)
Kyle Busch (+375 top three, +200 top five, -110 top 10)
+1400 to win
Kyle Larson (+325 top three, +180 top five, -120 top 10)
+1600 to win
Bubba Wallace (+425 top three, +200 top five, +100 top 10)
+1700 to win
William Byron (+475 top three, +200 top five, +100 top 10)
+2000 to win
Ross Chastain (+450 top three, +200 top five, +100 top 10)
Alex Bowman (+400 top three, +320 top five, +140 top 10)
Brad Keselowski (+500 top three, +250 top five, +120 top 10)
+2200 to win
Austin Cindric (+450 top three, +300 top five, -110 top 10)
Kevin Harvick (+625 top three, +320 top five, +140 top 10)
+2500 to win
Christopher Bell (+550 top three, +250 top five, +140 top 10)
Martin Truex Jr. (+600 top three, +300 top five, +120 top 10)
Tyler Reddick (+650 top three, +300 top five, +100 top 10)
Aric Almirola (+600 top three, +350 top five, +120 top 10)
+2800 to win
Chase Briscoe (+800 top three, +350 top five, +140 top 10)
Austin Dillon (+950 top three, +400 top five, +160 top 10)
Ryan Preece (+1000 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
+3000 to win
Erik Jones (+1000 top three, +325 top five, +160 top 10)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+1000 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
Chris Buescher (+1000 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
+3500 to win
Michael McDowell (+1000 top three, +400 top five, +130 top 10)
+4000 to win
Daniel Suarez (+1200 top three, +400 top five, +140 top 10)
+4500 to win
Noah Gragson (+1400 top three, +450 top five, +240 top 10)
+5000 to win
Ty Gibbs (+1000 top three, +350 top five, +140 top 10)
Jimmie Johnson (+1500 top three, +450 top five, +140 top 10)
A.J. Allmendinger (+1500 top three, +450 top five, +180 top 10)
Todd Gilliland (+1200 top three, +500 top five, +250 top 10)
Harrison Burton (+1500 top three, +600 top five, +280 top 10)
+6000 to win
Justin Haley (+1700 top three, +500 top five, +170 top 10)
+10000 to win
Corey LaJoie (+2000 top three, +700 top five, +280 top 10)
+12500 to win
Zane Smith (+2200 top three, +600 top five, +350 top 10)
+15000 to win
Ty Dillon (+2200 top three, +800 top five, +140 top 10)
+30000 to win
Travis Pastrana (+3000 top three, +800 top five, +650 top 10)
Riley Herbst (+3000 top three, +800 top five, +750 top 10)
+50000 to win
Conor Daly (+5000 top three, +1200 top five, +1200 top 10)
+100000 to win
Cody Ware (+15000 top three, +3000 top five, +1500 top 10)
B.J. McLeod (+15000 top three, +3000 top five, +1500 top 10)
