Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 57 player props: Over on Kelce, under on Mahomes

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to throw against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half of an NFL football game, Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, which has propelled them to their third Super Bowl appearance in the past four years.

The Chiefs will be taking on the Philadelphia Eagles this time around in Super Bowl 57, but they enter with some question marks surrounding the health of some key offensive players, including superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was able to play through an ankle injury during the AFC Championship Game, and the extra week should allow him and the rest of the Chiefs to be ready for Sunday.

We’ve got several Chiefs player props listed down below with analysis on each position group as well as their top Super Bowl MVP candidates.

Prop odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes

Base props: 294.5 passing yards (-110 over, -110 under), 1.5 passing touchdowns (-192 O, +154 U), 0.5 interceptions thrown (-122 O, -108 U), 19.5 rushing yards (-104 O, -118 U)

To score a touchdown: +490

Analysis: Mahomes should be healthier this week than he was two weeks ago against the Bengals, but he still faces a challenging path to putting up his usual passing statistics considering the Eagles have the NFL’s No. 1-rated pass defense. Mahomes’ receivers also aren’t very inspiring outside of All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, so under 294.5 passing yards seems likely considering the tough matchup and lack of reliable weapons. Mahomes’ touchdowns and interceptions props don’t appear to offer much value, but under 18.5 rushing seems like a strong play since his ankle will likely still prevent him from running much.

RUNNING BACKS

Isiah Pacheco

Base props: 46.5 rushing yards (-110 O, -110 U), 16.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 68.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114 O, -114 U), 1.5 receptions (-184 O, +148 U)

To score a touchdown: +135

Jerick McKinnon

Base props: 19.5 rushing yards (-112 O, -108 U), 22.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 45.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114 O, -114 U), 3.5 receptions (+138 O, -170 U)

To score a touchdown: +175

Analysis: The Chiefs backfield appears to be in position for a productive Super Bowl Sunday considering the Eagles’ weak point on defense is defending the run. This plays into the hands of early down back Isiah Pacheco, who should be able to pile up enough yards to go over 46.5. Jerick McKinnon’s production tends to be more hit-or-miss since he’s the complementary third down back, but over 19.5 receiving yards seems likely considering Mahomes will need him in the short passing game with the Eagles secondary and pass rush making it tough to get passes off down the field, and +175 for him to score a touchdown is also intriguing considering he found the end zone the last six weeks of the regular season.

MORE: Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl 57 player props: A.J. Brown among top options

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Travis Kelce

Base props: 79.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 7.5 receptions (+100 O, -122 U)

To score a touchdown: -120

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Base props: 38.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 3.5 receptions (-104 O, -118 U)

To score a touchdown: +320

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Base props: 37.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 2.5 receptions (-132 O, +100 U)

To score a touchdown: +250

Kadarius Toney

Base props: 26.5 receiving yards (-110 O, -110 U), 2.5 receptions (-132 O, +108 U)

To score a touchdown: +370

Justin Watson

To score a touchdown: +950

Noah Gray

To score a touchdown: +800

Analysis: Chiefs pass catchers have been banged up and inconsistent outside of Travis Kelce, which is why Kelce is the only player in this group that we’d feel comfortable taking the over on receiving yards and receptions even though they’re set the highest at 79.5 and 7.5. Another number we like is JuJu Smith-Schuster under 38.5 since he’s been virtually nonexistent the past two months and is coming off a knee injury. Kelce to score a touchdown at -120 is also tempting considering he almost always finds the end zone in postseason contests, but the best value on the board to score might be Kadarius Toney at +370 considering he came close in the AFC Championship Game and has big play ability. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is way too unpredictable.

Chiefs Super Bowl MVP Top Candidates

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes (+130)

Travis Kelce (+1600)

Chris Jones (+5000)

Jerick McKinnon (+5000)

Isiah Pacheco (+5000)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+6000)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (+7500)

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