An underdog pick and a profitable parlay on NFL Sunday: Best Bets for Jan. 29

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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs against the Buffalo Bills during the second half of an NFL division round football game, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Sunday, Jan. 29:

TOP PLAY

The play: NFL, San Francisco 49ers money line over Philadelphia Eagles

The odds: +132

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: 3 p.m. (Fox)

Our take: Good things tend to happen when my colleague, Jim Derry, and I see eye-to-eye. We’ve been high on the San Francisco 49ers for quite a while now, as evidenced by Jim’s NFC Championship Game preview that he published on Friday. We aren’t taking any of the bait and betting with our hearts based on the Divisional Round performances alone. Instead, we’re looking at the entire body of work by both teams.

While it’s true, the Philadelphia Eagles looked flawless in their win over the New York Giants, they didn’t get punched in the mouth. Nobody knows how Nick Sirianni’s team will respond when they face a little adversity, especially considering this is a young and inexperienced coaching staff.

Even though some of the Eagles’ players have been here before, a majority of the team hasn’t, and there’s something to be said for that reality. The 49ers may have a rookie quarterback in Brock Purdy, but almost everyone around him has been in this position beforehand. Kyle Shanahan knows what it takes to get to a Super Bowl.

There’s a ton of talent on both sides of the ball — no team is pound-for-pound better than the other. Thus, we have to dig deep to find the difference. San Francisco found itself in the middle of a dogfight last weekend and it was able to emerge victorious. The 49ers are battle-tested and they’re hotter than any other team in the NFL right now. Give me the underdogs to win outright in a hostile environment.

AFC Championship Game ATTS Parlay

The play: NFL Parlay, Jerick McKinnon and Joe Burrow ATTS

The odds: +1388

The book: FanDuel Sportsbook

Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Our take: We’re going to try and catch lightning in a bottle with this parlay on the AFC Championship Game. It’s silly to bet against the quarterback on either side, so we’re going to stay far away from picking winners. Instead, we’re going to pick two anytime touchdown scorers in what’s set up to be a shootout at Arrowhead Stadium.

Both Joe Burrow and Jerick McKinnon found the end zone the last time the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City met this season — they also played important roles in last year’s AFC Championship Game.

Cincinnati is going to be pulling out every trick from its sleeve to ensure it makes it back to the big game for a second consecutive season. This means letting Burrow loose with his legs, which he’s shown an ability to do under the brightest lights. The Bengals’ rushing attack — namely Joe Mixon — was fantastic last weekend against the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City will emphasize putting a stop to this, especially in the red zone, so I think Burrow can get a couple of carries inside the 10-yard line.

Burrow’s quarterback counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, won’t be as mobile this week due to the high ankle sprain he suffered last weekend. Thus, expect Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy to lean heavily on McKinnon as a dump-off option for the veteran quarterback. This combination of Mahomes to McKinnon found a lot of success for the Chiefs later on in the year; the duo should have a big night.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Saturday’s best bets

CBB: Kentucky -2½ over Kansas (LOST)

PGA: Collin Morikawa to finish top 5 at Farmers Insurance Open (WON)

Friday’s record: 1-1

Total for the week: 3-8

Total for January: 23-30

Total for 2023: 23-30

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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