The NFL Divisional Round has arrived, and all four matchups appear to be exciting with several high-powered offenses set to take the field.
Last week’s Super Wild Card Weekend produced lots of offensive production, and we’re riding with that trend as far as this week’s top player prop picks being mainly overs, as none of the four games are expected to be affected by weather.
I’ve got my top player prop values for passing, rushing and receiving yards per usual, as well as analysis of each matchup from a DFS perspective.
TOP PROP PLAYS
Player prop odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Passing top play
Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 268.5 yards (-114) vs. Bengals
Allen’s passing production has been a bit sporadic down the stretch, but he’s still capable of throwing for 300-plus yards any given week. The Bills will likely need Allen to air it out in a likely shootout with Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and there should be plenty of opportunity for explosive plays down the field since the Bengals’ secondary is the weak point of their defense.
Passing honorable mention
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 250.5 yards (-114) at Chiefs
Lawrence led an epic comeback last week after an ugly first half in which he threw four interceptions, and he’ll likely be playing from behind again this week against the No. 1-seeded Chiefs. That’s a positive development for his passing yardage output with the Jaguars likely abandoning the run early and allowing Lawrence to rack up yards through the air.
Rushing top play
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 64.5 yards (-114) vs. Cowboys
The 49ers were unstoppable last week both on the ground and through the air, but they’ll likely lean on McCaffrey more than usual against a Cowboys defense that’s vulnerable against the run. The Cowboys shut down the Bucs on the ground, but McCaffrey and the 49ers are on a different level, and they project to stick with the run throughout the game since he should have success early and often.
Rushing honorable mention
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 35.5 yards (-114) at 49ers
Elliott has taken a back seat to Tony Pollard as the Cowboys primary running back, and that’s reflected in his yardage total being a measly 34.5. We still like the under though, and that’s because Elliott has lacked explosiveness all year, and it’s hard to believe that will change this week against an elite 49ers run defense.
Receiving top play
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith OVER 64.5 yards (-114) vs. Giants
The Eagles have arguably the NFL’s top wide receiver duo in Smith and A.J. Brown, and while Brown’s the one that gets the most credit, Smith has been nearly as productive down the stretch. Jalen Hurts appears fully healthy, so while both should have their usual strong numbers, Smith appears to be the better value with Brown drawing the top coverage from a Giants secondary lacking in depth.
Receiving honorable mention
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk OVER 51.5 yards (-114) at Chiefs
The Jaguars have been tough to predict as far as who will lead the team in receiving out of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones, so we’re going with the man who’s displayed the most consistency. That would be Kirk, as he’s clearly Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target and is in line for another productive outing having racked up over 100 receiving yards against the Chiefs in the regular season.
TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH
DFS player prices via DraftKings
Shootout of the Week: Bengals at Bills
The Bills and the Bengals have two of the NFL’s elite offenses, and while they also have quality defenses, I’m expecting elite quarterback play from Josh Allen and Joe Burrow to prevail. While this contest has several players who are too expensive to classify as DFS values, there should be enough points put up for guys who normally don’t put up big numbers to step up and make for nice value plays.
DFS values: Bengals QB Joe Burrow ($6500), Bills RB James Cook ($4800), Bills WR Gabe Davis ($4800), Bengals WR Tyler Boyd ($4000), Bills TE Dawson Knox ($3800), Bengals TE Hayden Hurst ($3200)
Low-key shootout: Jaguars at Chiefs
There aren’t any true low-key shootouts this week with all eight offenses that remain productive, but this contest isn’t getting as much attention as Bengals-Bills and has DFS value as a result. Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are capable of producing just as much or more than Josh Allen and Joe Burrow since the defenses here aren’t as solid in this matchup.
DFS values: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence ($6000), Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco ($5500), Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5100), Jaguars WR Zay Jones ($4700), Jaguars TE Evan Engram ($4300)
Most lopsided: Giants at Eagles
While the Giants have put up points even against tough opponents, this week will be tougher than ever considering the Eagles had an extra week of rest and have elite playmakers throughout their defense. The Eagles’ offense should thrive though with a healthy Jalen Hurts, so there isn’t much to like here for DFS outside of a few Eagles players and maybe one or two Giants.
DFS values: Eagles RB Miles Sanders ($5700), Eagles WR DeVonta Smith ($7200), Giants WR Richie James ($3900), Eagles TE Dallas Goedert ($4500)
Stay away: Cowboys at 49ers
It’s difficult to classify this matchup as a stay away since both the 49ers and Cowboys have explosive offenses, but it projects to be the most defensive-oriented contest with both teams having strong stop units. There are a handful of DFS values here, but it’s one to avoid for the most part considering the other three matchups have more shootout potential.
DFS values: 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell ($4700), 49ers WR Deebo Samuel ($5900), Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz ($4200)
POSTSEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: 1-1 (top play 0-1, HM 1-0)
Rushing: 1-1 (top play 0-1, HM 1-0)
Receiving: 1-1 (top play 0-1, HM 1-0)
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers