Chiefs still Super Bowl favorite heading into Divisional Round, but others are catching up

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Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco celebrates after scoring during the second half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend produced some exciting action, and there are now only eight teams remaining with a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.

Both the AFC and NFC have a pair of clear favorites, but last weekend proved that anything can happen with both the Jaguars and Giants delivering upsets along with the Bills and Bengals nearly falling as chalk favorites.

The futures odds have shifted for the eight remaining Super Bowl contenders heading into the Divisional Round, so let’s take a look at how the is looking as far as finding value.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (+300 to win Super Bowl, +140 to win AFC)

The Chiefs remain the odds-on Super Bowl favorite, and that reflects in them being heavy favorites for their Divisional Round contest this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. The Chiefs easily handled the Jaguars earlier in the regular season, and while they should be able to defeat them again this weekend, a tough opponent will await them the following week in either the Buffalo Bills or the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds went from +340 last week to +300, but their AFC title ticked up from +140 to +145, which seems to be a decent value for the overall favorite sporting the NFL’s top quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Buffalo Bills (+330 to win Super Bowl, +160 to win AFC)

The Bills were able to survive a wacky first-round contest against a division rival in the Miami Dolphins, and while they did enough to win, they’ll have to clean up the mistakes that nearly cost them since they’ll be facing a tougher opponent on paper this week in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals also had their share of struggles last week, but Joe Burrow and company were locked in against the Bills in the regular season prior to Damar Hamlin’s scary injury which saw the game declared a no-contest. The oddsmakers see a path for the Bills considering their Super Bowl odds went from +400 last week to +350, and their AFC title went from +200 to +170.

Cincinnati Bengals (+750 to win Super Bowl, +400 to win AFC)

Much like the Bills, the Bengals struggled against a division rival in the Baltimore Ravens to kick off their playoff run, but their defense was able to deliver a timely turnover to bail out Joe Burrow and the offense. Burrow and company know how to win in the postseason, but they’ll have a tough task on their hands this weekend in Buffalo. There’s value to be had though for those that believe in the Bengals, as their Super Bowl odds remain at +800, with their AFC title odds moving slightly from +420 to +400.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3300 to win Super Bowl, +1300 to win AFC)

It appeared that the Jaguars would be bounced from the playoffs early, but they managed to pull off a comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers despite trailing 27-0 in the second quarter. While the Jaguars will have a much tougher task on their hands this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs, they’ve been trending up having won six games in a row and are a different team than when they got blown out by the Chiefs in November. There’s still some value to be had with the Jaguars as a long shot, but not as much as for those that believed in them before the playoffs, as their Super Bowl odds went from +5000 all the way to +3500.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers (+450 to win Super Bowl, +170 to win NFC)

The 49ers showed why they’re the overall favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with a strong performance against the Seahawks last week in which rookie quarterback Brock Purdy looked like anything but a 7th-round Mr. Irrelevant. Purdy and the 49ers’ offense are peaking at the right time to complement their elite defense, so there’s still some value to be had in them winning the Super Bowl. The oddsmakers have moved their odds a decent amount lower than last week though, as they went from +450 to win the Super Bowl to +380, and their NFC title odds shifted from +170 to +160.

Philadelphia Eagles (+500 to win Super Bowl, +150 to win NFC)

The Eagles had to have been somewhat alarmed after seeing what the 49ers were capable of, but the good news is that they were able to have the week off as the No. 1 seed in hopes that star quarterback Jalen Hurts will be 100% healthy for a deep playoff run. They may have caught a break by having the Giants upset the Vikings since they’ll get to face them this week instead of the Cowboys, but it won’t be easy getting past either the 49ers or the Cowboys in the next round. There appears to be value in the Eagles’ futures for those that believe that Hurts is fully healthy, as their odds to win the Super Bowl stayed at +550, and their NFC title odds only went from +175 to +165.

Dallas Cowboys (+850 to win Super Bowl, +330 to win NFC)

The Cowboys were one of the most doubted teams heading into the postseason considering they struggled down the stretch in large part due to quarterback Dak Prescott’s interception issues, but Prescott stepped up in a dominant victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that was nearly flawless outside of kicker Brett Maher’s PAT debacle. While the Cowboys will likely be holding kicker tryouts this week, they’ve established themselves as an outside Super Bowl contender, but there doesn’t appear to be much value with their futures odds since they went from all the way from +1300 to +850 to win the Super Bowl and from +550 to +350 to win the NFC title despite the fact that they have to face the NFC favorite this week on the road.

New York Giants (+2500 to win Super Bowl, +1300 to win NFC)

I had mentioned last week that the Giants could be a sneaky dark horse contender considering they’ve played hard in nearly every game this season despite not looking the part on paper, and they proved that to be true in an upset victory over the Vikings in which quarterback Daniel Jones stepped up and had one of the best games of his career. While the Giants will almost certainly fight hard again this weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, there’s a clear talent deficit assuming Jalen Hurts is healthy, so there doesn’t appear to be much value in Giants futures odds now, as their Super Bowl odds went from +5000 last week to +3000 and from +2800 to +1300 to win the NFC.

Looking for this week’s schedule and odds? See the complete NFL Divisional Round schedule here with odds for all four games.

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