Super Bowl futures see clear betting favorites, making long shots worth a look

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New York Giants wide receiver Kenny Golladay (19) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Lawrence Cager (83) during the NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

Each week leading up to Super Bowl 57, I’ll be evaluating the futures betting market for the remaining NFL playoff teams.

This year’s NFL playoff field looks more top-heavy than usual, as there are only five teams with odds at +1000 or lower to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook. That could set up for value to be had if one of the other nine teams can break through and make a deep run, so let’s take a look at how the 14 teams are looking heading into the postseason.

AFC No. 1 seed: Kansas City Chiefs (+330 to win Super Bowl, +165 to win AFC)

The Chiefs are the AFC favorite and rightfully so, as they’ll have a bye this week to get refreshed before the divisional round. There doesn’t appear to be much value with their futures odds though due to the AFC having two other elite teams in the Bills and Bengals.

NFC No. 1 seed: Philadelphia Eagles (+500 to win Super Bowl, +155 to win NFC)

The Eagles ended up securing the NFC’s top seed despite a rocky finish to the season, but they could be a value to win the Super Bowl since they’ll have this week to heal up and are an elite team when healthy. The health of quarterback Jalen Hurts is their most critical factor.

AFC No. 2 seed: Buffalo Bills (+420 to win Super Bowl, +200 to win AFC)

The Bills have been trending up with Josh Allen’s elbow injury a thing of the past and should cruise past the beat-up Dolphins this weekend. They’re set to have tough tasks on their hands after that though in likely battles with fellow AFC powers in the Bengals and Chiefs.

NFC No. 2 seed: San Francisco 49ers (+500 to win Super Bowl, +200 to win NFC)

The 49ers are somehow the favorite to win the NFC despite starting a third-string rookie quarterback in rookie Brock Purdy, but that goes to show how elite their defense is. There’s still value to be had with their futures odds since the NFC appears to have only one other elite team.

AFC No. 3 seed: Cincinnati Bengals (+750 to win Super Bowl, +410 to win AFC)

The Bengals have established themselves as elite having not lost a game since October, and while they’ll likely have to face both the Bills and the Chiefs assuming they get past the Ravens this week, their futures odds appear to offer more value than the top two AFC seeds.

NFC No. 3 seed: Minnesota Vikings (+3000 to win Super Bowl, +1200 to win NFC)

It’s clear that the oddsmakers feel that the Vikings’ regular season record is deceiving, as they’re barely favored to get past a Giants team this week that has the longest odds to win the NFC. The Vikings could offer value though with the NFC not nearly as loaded at the top as the AFC.

AFC No. 4 seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (+4800 to win Super Bowl, +2100 to win AFC)

The Jaguars miraculously rallied back to win the AFC South, which makes them a trendy underdog pick considering they’re on a five-game winning streak. They could be worth taking a flier on despite having a tough path in the AFC that begins with the Chargers this week.

NFC No. 4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2800 to win Super Bowl, +1100 to win NFC)

The Buccaneers have been here before having it all just two years ago under Tom Brady, but they’re only in the postseason this year due to the putrid NFC South. There doesn’t appear to be any value since they’re likely facing an early exit this week against a superior Cowboys team.

AFC No. 5 seed: Los Angeles Chargers (+2100 to win Super Bowl, +1100 to win AFC)

The Chargers are getting the most respect from the oddsmakers among the AFC underdogs, but this makes it to where they don’t offer much value considering their path toward the Super Bowl would likely involve getting past at least one or both of the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals.

NFC No. 5 seed: Dallas Cowboys (+1300 to win Super Bowl, +550 to win NFC)

The Cowboys haven’t looked anything like the team they were for most of the season having stumbled down the stretch, but they appear healthy heading into the playoffs and might be able to build some momentum in what should be a first-round victory over the scuffling Bucs.

AFC No. 6 seed: Baltimore Ravens (+3700 to win Super Bowl, +1700 to win AFC)

The Ravens have stumbled down the stretch, and while their defense has been among the NFL’s best, their offense has been stagnant without Lamar Jackson. A rematch against the powerhouse Bengals isn’t appealing even if Jackson returns.

NFC No. 6 seed: New York Giants (+5500 to win Super Bowl, +2400 to win NFC)

The Giants weren’t expected to be in the playoffs this season, but they exceeded expectations under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. They could be a sneaky team considering they’ve competed in nearly every game, making them potentially worth a flier as a longshot.

AFC No. 7 seed: Miami Dolphins (+6500 to win Super Bowl, +3500 to win AFC)

The Dolphins ended up sneaking into the playoffs after a rough second half, and they’re an extremely long shot due to their uncertainty at the quarterback position. It likely won’t matter even if Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play this week against the powerful Bills.

NFC No. 7 seed: Seattle Seahawks (+8500 to win Super Bowl, +3100 to win NFC)

The Seahawks’ strong first half ended up being enough for them to make the postseason, but their magic with Geno Smith under center dwindled in the second half. It will be tough to rekindle it this week against the league’s No. 1 defense in the 49ers.

See the complete NFL Wild Card Weekend schedule here with odds for all six games.

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