The NFL is set to play Week 18 and close out the regular season as scheduled, and it appears likely that the Bills will be a part of it with Damar Hamlin’s condition taking a turn for the better.
While there’s a full 16-game slate on tap, there are several matchups that are meaningless as far as the playoff picture, but that sets up some matchups as extra meaningful with teams fighting for seeding or their playoff lives.
We have all overs as a result for our top prop plays featuring players from teams with something on the line, and we’ve also highlighted the matchups to watch from a DFS perspective.
TOP PROP PLAYS
Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Passing top play
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 257.5 yards (-137) vs. Titans
The Jaguars didn’t have to throw much last week and pulled Lawrence early with the game in hand, but this week will be a different story in a must-win scenario. Lawrence was able to shred the Titans’ vulnerable secondary in their first matchup against each other, and the rematch will likely be similar to where he should easily go over his passing prop.
Passing honorable mention
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 322.5 yards (-127) at Raiders
The No. 1 seed in the AFC is up for grabs with the uncertainty surrounding the Bills and Bengals, so the Chiefs have no choice but to let Mahomes and the starters play. The Raiders defense has been surrendering tons of passing yards, so Mahomes should be able to continue that trend and will likely have to keep his foot on the gas with the Chiefs defense struggling.
Rushing top play
Steelers RB Najee Harris OVER 72.5 yards (-117) vs. Browns
Harris has been trending up as of late for a Steelers offense that’s leaned on the run with a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett. That recipe shouldn’t change this week with the Browns having one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the run, so Harris should be in line for another productive outing as the Steelers’ lead runner in a must-win game.
Rushing honorable mention
Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 88.5 yards (-117) at Jaguars
The Titans passing game is anything but reliable and is now on its third quarterback, and the way they were able to attack the Jaguars in their first outing was on the ground with Henry. While it will be tough for that recipe to result in a victory, Henry is a safe bet to rack up yardage on the ground and should be able to hit the over on his rushing prop even if the Titans throw more than usual.
Receiving top play
Jaguars TE Evan Engram OVER 54.5 yards (-129) vs. Titans
The Titans have struggled against tight ends, and Engram made that known in his first matchup against them with a career-best outing in which he racked up 162 receiving yards. While the Titans should adjust enough to where they won’t let Engram go for over 150 receiving yards again, he should still produce enough to go well over 55 yards.
Receiving honorable mention
Titans WR Robert Woods OVER 33.5 yards (-105) at Jaguars
The Titans passing game was still below average last week with new quarterback Josh Dobbs, but he seemed to develop a decent report with Woods. Treylon Burks is once again dealing with an injury, so Woods is in line to lead the team in targets and should be able to go well over 34 yards with or without Burks considering the Titans will likely be forced to throw.
TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH
DFS player prices via DraftKings
Shootout of the Week: Lions at Packers
Not too many shootouts are set to take place this week with so many offenses lacking their starting quarterbacks and top skill players, but this Lions-Packers matchup features two offenses that are fully healthy and will be fighting for their playoff lives. While there’s a chance the Lions could be eliminated before kickoff, they’ll still be motivated to play spoiler, and their offense will likely be chasing points with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense set to pick apart the struggling Lions defense.
DFS values: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ($6000), Lions RB D’Andre Swift ($5700), Packers RB AJ Dillon ($5600), Packers WR Christian Watson ($5600), Packers WR Allen Lazard ($5500), Lions WR DJ Chark ($4300), Packers TE Robert Tonyan ($3600)
Low-key shootout: Panthers at Saints
There weren’t any standout options for this category with so many defensive struggles set to take place, but this Panthers-Saints contest offers several sneaky DFS values. The Panthers’ secondary is in shambles, so Andy Dalton should throw more than usual and make some Saints pass catchers relevant, and the Panthers’ underrated running game should be able to thrive once again with the Saints’ defense being much weaker against the run than the pass.
DFS values: Saints QB Andy Dalton ($4800), Panthers RB D’Onta Foreman ($5200), Saints WR Rashid Shaheed ($4200), Panthers WR Terrace Marshall ($3400), Saints TE Juwan Johnson ($3700)
Stay away: Texans at Colts
While there are several matchups with little to like on offense, there’s none uglier than this Texans-Colts matchup featuring two teams that would probably rather be sitting on their couch considering how disastrous their seasons have gone. Neither offense has shown any sign of life recently, so it’s unlikely that they’ll put up numbers in a game that their fan bases would rather them lose so they can have a better draft pick to select their quarterback of the future.
SEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: 16-14 (top play 7-8, HM 9-6)
Rushing: 15-15 (top play 8-7, HM 7-8)
Receiving: 20-10 (top play 10-5, HM 10-5)
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers
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