Colts at Giants odds preview: Point spread, prediction for Week 17 matchup

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Indianapolis Colts' Kwity Paye (51) celebrates a fumble recover during the second half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, Dec. 26, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Cross-conference clashes aren’t as common toward the end of the regular season, but we have one in Week 17 when the Indianapolis Colts travel to face the New York Giants. Kickoff is slated for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

The Giants can clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2016 with a win this weekend, something that might have seemed surprising for prognosticators back in August. The Giants are 8-6-1 and would be the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs if the season ended today. That would set up a Wild Card matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

Head coach Brian Daboll deserves a ton of credit for what he’s been able to accomplish in his first year at the helm. But that doesn’t mean it has been smooth sailing all year. The Giants won six of their first seven games but have only notched two victories since the calendar flipped to November.

The Colts wish they could be as picky about such results. Indianapolis has dropped five games in a row and is 4-10-1 on the year. The Colts entered the year with aspirations of winning the AFC South but have a minus-109 point differential (five points worse than the Houston Texans) entering this weekend.

As a result, it should be no surprise to learn that Caesars Sportsbook is listing the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 39.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

Time/TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Giants -5.5

Money line: Colts +205/Giants -250

Over/under: 39

Analysis: The Colts had a disappointing season after being the preseason favorite to win the AFC South. The Giants have been a pleasant surprise in a tough NFC East. Naturally, this has led to vastly different betting results for these two teams.

The Colts are 6-9 against the spread on the year, including 1-3 over their last four outings. The Giants have covered the number in back-to-back games and are 11-4 ATS overall. They have combined to go 10-18-2 to the over, which helps explain the low total.

But the question is, can the Giants cover this big of a number as a favorite? New York was a 4.5-point favorite ahead of a 24-16 home win over the Houston Texans on Nov. 13, which was its biggest spread as a favorite prior to this weekend.

Given what is at stake for the Giants, as well as how much the Colts have underperformed of late, I’m somewhat comfortable laying this number with the home team.

Prediction: Giants 21, Colts 14

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