Andy Dalton yardage prop too good to be true? See top Week 16 prop plays and matchups

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New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

We’ve arrived at the point in the NFL season where game scripts can be affected by the weather, and that’s never been more true heading into Week 16 of 2022.

An extreme blast of cold and wind is set to affect almost the entire country this weekend to where any teams playing outdoors likely won’t have their usual offenses, with none being more affected than the Saints at Browns as evidenced by their league-low total of 32 points.

There are still values to be had with player props and in DFS since not every matchup will be in the freezing cold, and there are some prop plays that can be taken advantage of as a result of these extreme conditions.

TOP PROP PLAYS

Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Passing top play

Saints QB Andy Dalton UNDER 143.5 yards (-142) at Browns

Dalton only threw for 151 yards last week in the climate-controlled Superdome, so it’s unrealistic to expect him to throw for more than that in a frigid environment against the Cleveland Browns. While the under might seem too good to be true, the Saints’ top receiver Chris Olave will be out, so they’re almost certainly going to lean on the run and cap Dalton’s pass attempts.

Passing honorable mention

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 298.5 yards (-106) vs. Seahawks

The Chiefs appear to have a favorable matchup on paper against the Seahawks, but Mahomes might not put up his usual amount of passing yards. That’s because the Seahawks’ defense is weaker against the run than the pass, so the Chiefs will likely won’t need Mahomes to go off as a passer with the Seahawks’ offense set to have trouble turning this into a shootout with Tyler Lockett inactive.

Rushing top play

Commanders RB Brian Robinson UNDER 42.5 yards (-106) at 49ers

The 49ers have the NFL’s top defense against the run, and while Robinson has had a successful rookie season, he hasn’t shown enough to garner enough confidence he’ll be able to break through against this brick wall of a defense. Nearly every opposing running back has been shut down against this elite unit, so it’s unlikely that Robinson will be able to buck that trend.

Rushing honorable mention

Bills RB Devin Singletary OVER 46.5 yards (-119) at Bears

The Bills are set to run the ball more than usual with the weather set to be a mess in Chicago, which means they’ll be forced to lean on Singletary and their primary runner on early downs. The Bears’ run defense is among the worst in the league, so Singletary should have plenty of chances to break off runs and pile up yardage.

Receiving top play

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk OVER 51.5 yards (-119) vs. Commanders

The 49ers leaned on George Kittle last week as their primary receiving threat, but that might have to change this week with the Commanders being one of the best defenses against opposing tight ends. Aiyuk should be heavily involved as a result, and he should go well over his yardage total since he’s now the No. 1 receiver with Deebo Samuel out.

Receiving honorable mention

Panthers WR D.J. Moore OVER 52.5 yards (-115) vs. Lions

Moore is the lone reliable receiving threat in Carolina, and he draws a dream matchup this week against a Lions secondary that’s among the most vulnerable in the NFL to opposing wide receivers. The Panthers’ passing game hasn’t lit the world on fire, but Sam Darnold is capable of getting the ball out consistently to Moore to where he should be able to rack up yardage.

TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH

DFS player prices via DraftKings

Shootout of the Week: Giants at Vikings

There weren’t any obvious shootout candidates this week with so much bad weather, so we’re going with a contest that will be played indoors featuring a couple of revamped offenses. The Giants haven’t lit the world on fire as of late, but they should be able to put points on the board against the Vikings’ shaky defense, and we all know what the Vikings’ offense is capable of with their elite cast of skill players.

DFS values: Giants QB Daniel Jones ($5600), Giants RB Saquon Barkley ($7900), Vikings WR K.J. Osborn ($4500), Giants WR Richie James ($3900), Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson ($4900)

Low-key shootout: Lions at Panthers

The Lions have been arguably the most improved offense this season, and while the Panthers haven’t been anywhere near as reliable, this game could end up a high-scoring affair due to the defenses being vulnerable. The Lions should be able to pick apart the Panthers’ secondary and vice versa, which could lead to Jared Goff and Sam Darnold duking it out through the air.

DFS values: Panthers QB Sam Darnold ($5100), Lions RB D’Andre Swift ($5500), Panthers WR D.J. Moore ($5500), Lions WR D.J. Chark ($4200)

Stay away: Falcons at Ravens; Saints at Browns

There are several matchups I’m avoiding this week, but these two are the ones that I won’t be rostering a single player from when setting DFS lineups. The Saints and Browns game is expected to be among the harshest weather situations, and the Ravens and Falcons have backup quarterbacks starting and haven’t been able to get anything going on offense lately.

SEASON PROP RECORD

Passing: 14-14 (top play 6-8, HM 8-6)

Rushing: 14-14 (top play 8-6, HM 6-8)

Receiving: 18-10 (top play 9-5, HM 9-5)

Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers

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