2022 Armed Forces Bowl, Baylor vs. Air Force: TV, time and Home Field Sports staff picks

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Baylor players celebrate after a touchdown during the second half of an NCAA college football game against West Virginia in Morgantown, W.Va., Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Kathleen Batten)

In case you missed it, the Home Field Sports crew is holding its second annual College Bowl Pick ‘Em, and we’re hoping you’re the big benefactor from our predictions.

Like we did last year, we started with $1,000 Bowl Bucks, and we’re making a play on each of the 42 bowl games this season. And when it’s over, we’ll take whatever money we have left and make a “Final Jeopardy” type pick in the National Championship Game in Inglewood, Calif., on Jan. 9, 2023.

Below are the picks from sports betting director Zach Ewing, along with staff writers Jim Derry, Spencer Urquhart and Gabe Henderson for the Bahamas Bowl, as it appeared in our original 2022-23 College Football Bowl Guide (Part 1).

We continue with today’s Armed Forces Bowl, and we will keep you up to date with where we all stand.

NOTE: These predictions were originally based off lines and spreads as of early afternoon on Tuesday, Dec. 13, at Caesars Sportsbook.

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Baylor (6-6, -235) vs. Air Force (9-3, +192)

Where: Fort Worth, Texas

When/TV: Dec. 22, 6:30 p.m. ESPN

Dec. 13 line/total (for contest): Baylor -6, O/U 49.5

Dec. 22 morning line/total: Baylor -3.5 (ML -170), Air Force ML +143; O/U 43

Zach Ewing: Air Force has been difficult to handicap in an up-and-down season, but consider this: Falcons games have only gone above 50 points four times, and in three of those it was because AFA scored 40+ itself. That won’t happen here. The bet: Under 49.5 for $22.

Jim Derry: It wasn’t long ago that Dave Aranda’s defense was one of the most feared in the nation. They’re still good, but they aren’t as good as Air Force, which is No. 1 overall and No. 1 in pass defense in college football. I’m not sure how that translates to big-boy football, but it’s enough to have me on the under, as I am betting the Bears are willing to play that kind of game and still win. P.S. It’s 8 days out when I write this, but it could be super cold, which also would slow down the scoring. The bet: Under 49.5 for $22.

Spencer Urquhart: Air Force peaked at the right time having won four in a row, and while Baylor has been trending in the opposite direction, the fact is that they’re still a respectable Power Five program. The Falcons could cover, but I like the under as the play here since their strong defense should be able to prevent this game from turning into a shootout. The bet: Under 49.5 for $11.

Gabe Henderson: Air Force has failed to score 20 points five times this season. Baylor’s had a down year, but Dave Aranda is a defensive guru. This game screams the under. The bet: Under 49.5 for $22.

WHERE WE STAND

Through Thursday (Dec. 21)

All picks and handicaps were made and written on or before Dec. 15, and lines were taken from Caesars Sportsbook as of Dec. 13. Staff writers were allowed to make a pick on the money line, spread, total or make no pick at all.

Although our contest uses lines from Dec. 13, we also list the most up-to-date lines.

Canceled games or ties are considered no picks.

STARTING STACK FOR STAFFERS: $1,000 BOWL BUCKS

Zach Ewing: 9-4 overall, +$20 on Thursday, balance $1,113.

Gabe Henderson: 5-7 overall, +$20 on Thursday, balance $928.

Jim Derry: 4-9 overall, -$22 on Thursday, balance $887.

Spencer Urquhart: 3-9 overall, -$20 on Thursday, balance $856.

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