The NFL season has seen offenses emerge down the stretch that had previously struggled such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, but some have also gone in the opposite direction such as the Baltimore Ravens.
These trends are worth noting when evaluating player props, as the perfect recipe for hitting an over tends to be identifying players on a surging offense that are in a position to exploit a weak defense.
There are also some values to be had with the under, especially with rushing yards this week, and we’ve got the top player props as well as the top matchups to watch in Week 13.
Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
TOP PROP PLAYS
Passing top play
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 212.5 yards (-117) at Lions
Lawrence has been surging the past few weeks and set the world on fire last week in a comeback win over the Ravens. He should be able to keep that momentum going this week against a soft Lions defense that ranks among the five worst against the pass.
Passing honorable mention
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 275.5 yards (-117) at 49ers
Tagovailoa has been one of the league’s top passers, but he could have some trouble against an elite 49ers defense. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the pass than the run, but they should be able to contain the Dolphins’ passing game enough for Tua’s under to hit.
Rushing top play
Eagles RB Miles Sanders UNDER 60.5 yards (-121) vs. Titans
The Titans have a stingy run defense, which will likely force the Eagles to throw more than usual. Sanders has thrived as the lead back this season in soft matchups, but he’ll likely struggle this week since he’s been shut down when facing tough defenses.
Rushing honorable mention
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook OVER 69.5 yards (-117) vs. Jets
Cook has had a disappointing season for his standards, and it likely won’t get any better against a strong Jets defense. This game could end up a shootout, so the Vikings might have to abandon the run like they did last week against the Patriots, which wouldn’t leave much for Cook.
Receiving top play
49ers TE George Kittle OVER 44.5 yards (-129) vs. Dolphins
Kittle hasn’t been consistent this season, but he still has the ability to rack up receiving yards at the tight end position. He should have one of his better performances against a Dolphins defense that’s vulnerable through the air, especially against the tight ends.
Receiving honorable mention
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk OVER 60.5 yards (-119) vs. Lions
Kirk took a back seat to Zay Jones last week as the Jaguars’ top target, but that was likely a matchup-based situation since the Ravens have an elite shutdown corner in Marlon Humphrey. Kirk should go back to being Trevor Lawrence’s top target against a weak Lions secondary.
TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Shootout of the Week: Chiefs at Bengals
This is as juicy as it gets for those chasing a shootout, as Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have the Chiefs and Bengals offenses firing on all cylinders. Mahomes and Burrow both went off last year when they faced off in the regular season, and they should do the same this season with both offenses having a strong arsenal of skill players.
Fantasy starts: QBs Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow; RBs Joe Mixon and Isiah Pacheco; WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd and Marquez Valdes-Scantling; TEs Travis Kelce and Hayden Hurst
Low-key shootout: Jaguars at Lions
This matchup should see plenty of points considering it will be indoors and features a pair of promising offenses against less-than-stellar defenses. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are finding their groove, and while the Lions have been inconsistent at times, this should be a week that Jared Goff and company can shine now that they’re healthier.
Fantasy starts: QBs Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff; RBs Travis Etienne, Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift; WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and DJ Chark; TE Evan Engram
Stay away: Broncos at Ravens
There have been several ugly matchups this season, but this one could take the cake considering the state of these two offenses. The Ravens have been trending down as of late and saw Lamar Jackson leave practice early on Wednesday, and the Broncos have been nothing short of a train wreck with Russell Wilson.
Fantasy start(s): QB Lamar Jackson (if active); WR Courtland Sutton; TE Mark Andrews
SEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: 12-10 (top play 4-7, HM 8-3)
Rushing: 10-12 (top play 6-5, HM 4-7)
Receiving: 15-7 (top play 8-3, HM 7-4)
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers