Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots a tight one? Josh Allen to run? Best Bets (Dec. 1)

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) looks to pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Thursday, Dec. 1:


The play: NFL, Patriots +3.5 over Bills

The odds/bet: -105 ($21 to win $20)

The book: DraftKings

Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime Video)

Our take: As we told you in our weekly NFL picks column, this is one of the tougher games of the week to decipher, as the obvious tells you the Bills should roll through this one. But why would we think Buffalo is any better than they have been for the past month or so?

The public is all over Buffalo, and actually, many of the sharps are, as well. However, this is the same time of year Josh Allen and company went into a little funk before putting themselves back together in time for another postseason collapse against the Chiefs. (OK … well … they didn’t actually collapse, but their defense kind of did.)

As the Bills are tied with Miami atop the AFC East, one could make an argument they need this one in the worst way. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are teetering on the edge of the playoff hunt, and on a Thursday night in prime time, our money is on them to at least keep it super close and find a way to win – just as they did in almost exactly the same time of year in 2021.

If you want to put a couple of bucks on the money line at +160, we aren’t going to stop you, but we’re taking the safer route (and betting less than we normally put on a best bet), as we fade the public and put our trust in Belichick.


The play: NFL player prop, Josh Allen to rush for more than 45.5 yards

The odds/bet: -110 ($11 to win $10)

The book: FanDuel

Our take: Take a look at the stats, and way more than not, in tight games, Allen has rushed a fair amount. Beyond that, he has gone for more than 45 yards in four of his past five games and seven contests total this season.

Before diving in, I was worried the Patriots’ defense might be a little better against quarterbacks who can run, but that is not the case. They gave up 107 yards on 11 carries to Lamar Jackson in Week 4, 82 yards on 14 tries to Justin Fields in Week 8 and even 39 yards a few weeks ago to Sam Ehlinger and the then-lowly Colts just before Frank Reich was canned.

Figuring this will be close throughout most of the game, one can expect Allen to have to run nine to 12 times, and that should be good enough to get him past the magic number.


Wednesday’s best bets

NBA: Suns -5 over Bulls (WON $30)

World Cup: Mexico to defeat Saudi Arabia (WON $10)

Wednesday’s profit/loss: +$40 (2-0)

Total for the week: +$152.90 (6-0)

Total for November: +$367.30 (35-24)

Total for 2022: +$383.40 (314-330)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).


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