Colts at Cowboys betting preview: Indianapolis looks to upset Dallas on Sunday Night Football

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Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates a touchdown run with Parris Campbell (1) and Ryan Kelly (78) during the second half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday, Nov. 28, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The Indianapolis Colts look to save their season as they hit the road to take on one of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys, on Sunday night.

The Colts lost a very winnable game 24-17 against the Steelers last Monday. Close losses have hurt the Colts the entire season, as the team has lost five of its seven games by nine points or less. One area this year where the Colts have really struggled is turnovers, with a minus-10 turnover differential, second-to-last in the NFL (the Saints are the worst at minus-14). While the defense has forced only 11 turnovers, it is the offense that has really let the team down. They are tied with the Saints with 21 turnovers, including a league-leading 10 fumbles.

While the Colts have struggled turning the ball over, the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league when it comes to turnover differential. The Cowboys rank fourth in turnover differential (plus-5) and have been on fire since Dak Prescott came back from his injury. Since Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys rank first in touchdowns (21), second in yards per game (416.2) and third in passing touchdowns (10).

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Cowboys as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

Time/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Dallas -11

Money line: Indianapolis +430, Dallas -600

Over/under: 43.5

Analysis: Jonathan Taylor was looked at as an MVP candidate heading into this season, coming off a 2021-22 campaign in which he rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry. He has had to deal with injuries this year, but he has been able to only rush for over 100 yards twice this year, compared to 10 times last year. He has also already lost three fumbles this year, which is more than he did last season (two). If there is one positive is that the Cowboys rank 24th in rushing yards allowed (131.9).

Since the return of Prescott, the Cowboys’ passing game has been extremely explosive, but the rushing attack has also been equally as impressive. Since his return. The Cowboys are first in rushing touchdowns (11) and fifth in rushing yards (818). The combination of Tony Pollard (761 yards) and Ezekiel Elliot (577 yards) has emerged as one of the best 1-2 rushing attacks in the NFL. Pollard has been especially great as of late for the Cowboys, as he is averaging 96.5 yards in his last four games, with four rushing touchdowns. Against Minnesota, he showed off his receiving prowess with six catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns.

These two teams are going in opposite directions, and the Cowboys will continue their march to the postseason.

Prediction: Dallas 34, Indianapolis 17

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