Chiefs overtake Bills as Super Bowl favorites: See why the odds shifted

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks downfield during the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions, Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

The Buffalo Bills had been the Super Bowl 57 favorites for the duration of the 2022 NFL season, but there’s now a new favorite to win it all.

The Kansas City Chiefs have overtaken the Bills as the current Super Bowl favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, with the Chiefs shifting to +400 odds and the Bills to +450.

The Bills were still out front at +380 prior to yesterday’s games, but the Chiefs went from +450 to the overall favorite after yesterday’s win over the Rams, but that win wasn’t the main reason why the odds shifted.

It’s because of the uncertainty surrounding Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s health.

“The big reason for the Chiefs becoming Super Bowl favorites is the Josh Allen factor,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “We just don’t know if we’ll see the same Josh Allen that we saw before the injury. Obviously he’s not 100%, and we don’t know the extent of it and if it’ll get any better. Usually injuries like that, they don’t get better and continuing to play can make it worse.”

Allen suffered an elbow injury in Week 9 against the Jets and has played through it every week since, but his performance has suffered since then after being on an MVP pace through the first eight weeks of the season.

The Bills having a tougher stretch schedule also played a factor in the odds shift, but it’s clear that the potential of Allen’s injury lingering was the deciding factor.

“The Bills also have some tough games down the stretch, and the Chiefs have a pretty favorable schedule,” Pullen said. “But it’s those question marks about Allen and the Bills offense that has caused a flip of the favorites, and rightfully so.”

The Bills’ Super Bowl odds were as low as +230 from Oct. 31 to Nov. 6, and while they’ve seen the most money and handle to win it all among the 32 teams, their betting interest has dwindled with teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys and Dolphins trending up.

Allen’s injury could also affect Bills betting lines down the stretch, as they’ve been favored in every game so far, as well as Bills player props if they continue to shift toward a run-first approach.

“His injury impacts everything,” Pullen said. “Totals in Bills games for sure, their offense figures to not be as good if he’s not at full strength. The Bills have still been putting up points over the last couple weeks, but it remains to be seen how it will affect him as the season goes along.”

“It’s going to be interesting to make a lot of the Bills props now, because Allen’s numbers are going to be drastically lower with the injury if he’s not throwing as much. Any time a quarterback is injured, it filters down to the receivers as well.”


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