After narrowly missing out on a win over the NFL’s first-place team last week by giving up a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Indianapolis Colts will have a chance to rebound on Week 12’s edition of Monday Night Football against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers themselves also enter off of a loss, have dropped three of their previous four games and are still searching for their first road win since the opening week of the season.
In advance of the first meeting between these sides since 2020, Caesars Sportsbook has Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite with Monday night’s over/under total estimated at 39 points.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Colts -2½
Money line: Colts -140, Steelers +118
Analysis: The Colts continue to be one of the NFL’s strongest magnets for the under after combining with the Eagles for 33 points last Sunday and falling 12½ short of the over/under line. Indianapolis games have now gone under 14 of the past 16 times, including six of their previous seven matchups at home and against 11 of their most recent 13 AFC opponents.
Meanwhile, the Steelers’ road results in both the short and long term lend some confidence to the idea of them contributing towards an under despite the low line of 39 points. Pittsburgh has yet to score more than 20 regulation points in any of their road games and scored just 26 total points in their last three road trips combined. The Steelers have also seen the under hit in 46 of their previous 67 road games overall, against 41 of their 59 last opponents with losing records, and in five of their most recent seven matchups on Monday Night Football.
It also merits remembering that Pittsburgh has competed for most of this season without T.J. Watt, as the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year has played in just three games. Watt led the league in sacks a year ago and has already recorded interceptions in two of the three games he has played in through the first 12 weeks. Given Matt Ryan’s infamous struggles against premier pass rushes, a player of Watt’s caliber has the potential to wreak havoc on the Colts’ entire offense despite the Steelers surrendering the second-most passing yards in the league so far.
Indianapolis should still manage a win at home given Pittsburgh’s lackluster road performances, a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett who needs continued acclimation to the talent level in the NFL, and the breath of fresh air that Jeff Saturday continues to provide as the Colts’ interim head coach. That said, the lack of a dominant aerial attack from either side combined with each team harboring capable defensive talent presents the under as the best wager available to fans searching for a betting angle.
Prediction: Colts 21, Steelers 13