Coming off of Joe Burrow’s fourth performance with over 300 passing yards this season, the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Nashville this weekend to take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 12 of the NFL schedule.
The Titans secured a win on the road against the Green Bay Packers last week on Thursday Night Football, while Burrow’s big game helped Cincinnati even the season series with the Pittsburgh Steelers after a loss in the Bengals’ home opener.
Ahead of this rematch from last season’s AFC divisional round in the playoffs, Tennessee slots as a slight underdog. Caesars Sportsbook favors Cincinnati by a field goal and sets the over/under total at 43½ points.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Time/TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Bengals -3
Money line: Bengals -145, Titans +122
Analysis: In a game that features a narrow spread, picking a side becomes considerably more difficult when examining the trends each team has had covering under similar circumstances.
For example, the Bengals have successfully covered in all four of their most recent November games, against 10 of their last 11 opponents with winning records, and on nine of their last 11 road trips. Cincinnati is also 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 versus AFC teams.
Meanwhile, the Titans are on an eight-game winning streak against the spread, including six straight covers when facing AFC opponents. While Tennessee may have the plus odds in the current matchup, the underdog covered the spread in five of the last six meetings between these teams.
The head-to-head trends otherwise appear to favor the Bengals. Cincinnati owns wins against the spread in the last five meetings between these teams, as well as the last four games played in Nashville. But the major deciding factor in this latest showdown likely will be the point total, as a high-scoring game would favor the prolific aerial attack of the Bengals, while a lower-scoring grudge match would play into the hands of the Titans.
Tennessee has not allowed any opponent to score more than 17 points in regulation since Week 3 against the Las Vegas Raiders. As a result, the Titans have seen the under hit in six of their last seven games, nine of their last 10 home appearances, and against all five of their most recent AFC opponents. While Cincinnati’s eagerness to throw the football has resulted in several overs of late, Bengals games have gone under in all five of their most recent games against opponents with winning records and eight of their last 10 against teams from the AFC.
The potential return of Ja’Marr Chase from a hip injury may give Burrow and the Bengals’ passing offense a significant boost, but in a game that seems likely headed for the under, the better value play would be to back the Titans as the underdog on the money line. For less risky wagers, picking Tennessee to cover or for the total to tally at less than 43½ points read as the best bets in what will be a highly competitive matchup.
Prediction: Titans 24, Bengals 17