Nailing down player props can be a tricky task, but the fact that we’ve now got 10 weeks of data helps the cause somewhat.
While there are never any sure things with player props due to injuries, there appear to be several over plays that offer value this week as well as an under that stood out involving a struggling New Orleans Saints quarterback.
We’ve got a top player prop play and an honorable mention play for passing, rushing and receiving yards along with the top matchups to exploit for fantasy football.
Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
TOP PROP PLAYS
Passing top play
Saints QB Andy Dalton UNDER 212.5 yards (-135) vs. Rams
Dalton’s been in a slump for the past two weeks, and it doesn’t appear he’ll be getting out of it against a Rams defense that’s tough on opposing quarterbacks. Dalton could perform so poorly to where he gets benched at halftime, making this prop as appealing as any among passers.
Passing honorable mention
Giants QB Daniel Jones OVER 194.5 yards (-117) vs. Lions
Jones isn’t the most prolific passer, but he should have ample opportunity to rack up yards against a Lions defense that’s among the worst in the league. While it will once again be the Saquon Barkley show, Jones should be able to perform well enough for the over to hit.
Rushing top play
Bears RB David Montgomery OVER 61.5 yards (-119) at Falcons
The Bears have seen Justin Fields run wild recently, but Montgomery is in position to rack up yards since Khalil Herbert is out. The Falcons surrendered over 100 yards on the ground to D’Onta Foreman last week, so Montgomery should be able to churn out plenty as the clear workhorse.
Rushing honorable mention
Commanders RB Brian Robinson OVER 63.5 yards (-121) vs. Texans
The Texans rank as the worst run defense in the NFL, paving the way for Robinson to have a big day on the ground. He’s got the trust of the Commanders having racked up over 20 carries in Monday’s win over the Eagles and should continue to receive ample opportunity.
Receiving top play
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton OVER 60.5 yards (-131) vs. Raiders
Sutton made the list last week and delivered, and we’re going back to the well since he’s got a juicy matchup against the Raiders. That combined with the fact that Jerry Jeudy is most likely out paves the way for Sutton’s over to easily hit.
Receiving honorable mention
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth OVER 44.5 yards (-119) vs. Bengals
Freiermuth was heavily targeted in the Steelers’ Week 1 win over the Bengals, and he projects to be busy once again in the rematch having established himself as a trustworthy target for Kenny Pickett.
TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Shootout of the Week: Cowboys at Vikings
The Vikings and Cowboys were both involved in high-scoring affairs last week and should bring fantasy owners joy once again while matched up against each other. The Vikings have been involved in several shootouts this season, and they’ll likely be able to exploit a Cowboys defense that just got gashed by the Packers, and the Cowboys’ offense shouldn’t have trouble against a leaky Vikings stop unit.
Fantasy starts: QBs Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott; RBs Dalvin Cook, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott (if active); WRs Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen and Michael Gallup; TEs T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Schultz
Low-key shootout: Lions at Giants
The Giants have been arguably the biggest surprise this season having slowed down some powerful offenses, but this week could prove challenging against a Lions offense that knows how to put up points. Saquon Barkley and the Giants’ offense should have no issues against a horrid Lions defense, but Amon-Ra St. Brown and company should be able to stay in the game.
Fantasy starts: QBs Daniel Jones and Jared Goff (deep leagues); RBs Saquon Barkley, Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift; WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Darius Slayton
Stay away: Jets at Patriots
It was an ugly matchup for fantasy the last time the Jets and Patriots faced off this season, and the outcome will likely be similar considering both teams are clearly better on defense than on offense. Neither Mac Jones or Zach Wilson have shown much growth as quarterbacks in their second season, so this is one that fantasy managers should try and avoid.
Fantasy start(s): RB Rhamondre Stevenson; WRs Jakobi Meyers and Garrett Wilson (deep leagues)
SEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: 11-9 (top play 4-6, HM 7-3)
Rushing: 9-11 (top play 5-5, HM 4-6)
Receiving: 13-7 (top play 7-3, HM 6-4)
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers