Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts betting preview: NFL Week 11 odds, trends, pick

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Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell (1) celebrates a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half of an NFL football game in Las Vegas, Fla., Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Following the team’s first win under new head coach Jeff Saturday, the Indianapolis Colts will return home seeking to return to a .500 record when Lucas Oil Stadium hosts the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 11 of the NFL season. Before last week’s Monday Night Football, the Eagles stood as the only remaining undefeated team league-wide in 2022 before losing a divisional rivalry game to the Washington Commanders at home.

In advance of the first showdown between these teams since 2018, Indianapolis projects as a touchdown underdog against a previously unbeaten opponent. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as a 7-point favorite and the early afternoon’s over/under total at 45½ points.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts

Time/TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Eagles -7

Money line: Eagles -320, Colts +250

Over/under: 45½

Analysis: The Colts come into this matchup something of a wild card given their pivot back to Matt Ryan at quarterback and the aforementioned coaching change. While the new regime got off to a positive start under Saturday, the win came against an opponent that also has a new coach and has struggled with underperformance relative to preseason expectations. To that point, the Las Vegas Raiders now sit at next-to-last in the NFL with a record of 2-7, and Ryan likely benefitted greatly from facing a pass rush with the fewest sacks in the NFL.

While the Eagles’ most recent performance certainly qualified as puzzling, one would figure the team tied for first place in the NFL with eight wins should have an easier time bouncing back than most. Additionally, Philadelphia’s 29 sacks tie for fourth-most, so Ryan — the seventh-most sacked quarterback across the league this season despite starting only eight games — should have much less time to operate the Indianapolis offense than he did last week.

However, when considering a betting angle on this game, trusting the Eagles to return value carries considerable risk. Philadelphia owns just a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six road games. This season, two of the Eagles’ wins away from home came by just a field goal, they failed to cover the spread against the last-place Houston Texans at the start of November, and their September win over the Commanders came with the offense scoreless for three quarters.

Weighing the shortcomings of the Eagles on the road against the Colts’ likelihood to struggle to protect their quarterback, taking the under seems the safest wager rather. Indianapolis has gone under in 13 of its last 16 contests, including five times through the last six home games and five straight times against opponents with winning records.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Colts 17

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