Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Sunday, Nov. 6:
TOP PLAY
The play: NFL teaser, Bengals -1 over Panthers and Seahawks +8 over Cardinals
The odds/bet: -120 ($36 to win $30)
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -120 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: Both Sunday. Bengals-Panthers at 1 p.m. (FOX); Seahawks-Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Our take: So this is kind of cheating as I steal this from my weekly NFL picks column, but I love it as the best bet of the day.
What I said Thursday morning still holds true:
“A keystone of our early success in our best bets has been the teaser, as we are 4-1 in that department. It seems easier than it is, but we have stuck to the importance of going through key numbers, such as getting past a 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6 and 6.5. It’s also imperative to get past those numbers with two picks in which we like both spreads.
Such is the case here. Both legs of this teaser get through the numbers, and we think there’s value on both of these spreads.
As bad as Cincinnati looked this past Monday night, we told you it wasn’t a good matchup for them. Even without Ja’Marr Chase again this week, it could be a huge bounce-back spot for the Bengals against a Panthers team that gave one away against Atlanta.
In fact, being two games out in the awful NFC South might as well be eight games for Carolina, as they have to know putting together a 6-3 finish to even get to 8-9 and have a chance seems unlikely. That means the Bengals simply have to win here at home to cover their end of this bet.
Meanwhile, it is time to stop dismissing Seattle. (Really, it was time a few weeks ago, but I clearly am stubborn.)
In the ‘even his mother couldn’t have seen this coming’ department, Geno Smith is in the top 10 of quarterback rankings in just about any metric one would want to find him. Here we are at the midway point of the season, and while I would still be shocked if he finishes that high, Smith almost certainly will end up as one of the 2022 NFL season’s feel-good stories.
He was nothing special in the first meeting this season between the two teams, but he didn’t need to be, as the Seahawks’ defense began their run of solid defensive play in a 19-9 victory in Seattle three weeks ago. This one likely will be much higher scoring.
On the other side, Kyler Murray has lost three consecutive games to this team, including two last year during the Cardinals’ playoff run. Through his career, he has thrown for fewer than 270 yards in all but one of six matchups against Seattle and thrown seven touchdown passes to three interceptions.
It wouldn’t surprise us if the Seahawks lost, but it would surprise us if they got blown out – something that has happened just once – way back in Week 2 on the road at San Francisco.”
SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER …
The play: NFL, Colts under 16 points at New England
The odds/bet: +102 ($10 to win $10.20)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Our take: Someone has to explain to me how the Colts – without Jonathan Taylor and with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback – are going to score more than two touchdowns against a Patriots defense that knows it will need to be in lockdown mode because of its inconsistent offense.
We also like New England -5 and the total under of 40.5, but because of the shakiness at quarterback for the Pats, we could see some weird things happen here, so we’ll go with a better bet.
HOW WE’VE FARED
College football money-line parlay: Georgia over Tennessee and Alabama over LSU (LOST $32.80)
College football: Pittsburgh -3.5 over Syracuse (WON $10)
Saturday’s profit/loss: -$10.30 (2-1, including Wednesday’s future on the Astros)
Total for the week: +$114.60 (7-5)
Total for November: +$87.70 (6-4)
Total for 2022: +$104 (285-310)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
