World Series Game 4 a must win for Houston Astros: Best Bets for Nov. 2

Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier (53) gets a tap on his shoulder from Alex Bregman (2) as he leaves the game during the sixth inning of Game 3 of an American League Championship baseball series against the New York Yankees, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here is our best bet for Wednesday, Nov. 2:


The play: World Series Game 4, Astros to defeat the Phillies

The odds/bet: -102 ($30.60 to win $30)

The book: FanDuel

Time/TV: 8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Our take: In our best Captain Obvious voice, we say it’s as close to now or never as it can be for the team that was nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win the World Series last week at this time.

Money earlier this afternoon has come in on the Phillies to actually turn this into a decent value play, as the money line has dropped from -110 to -102 from the morning, while Philadelphia has jumped from -110 to -115. In other words, Joe Q. Public is jumping on the hot Phillies.

The problem is we still think Houston is the better team, and Philadelphia’s homer barrages usually come in bunches. And holy heck did they come Tuesday. That’s going to be much harder to do against Cristian Javier, who not only allows fewer than a home run per start, but he hasn’t given up any in his past four starts, winning three of those four games and finishing with a no-decision in the other.

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola was figured out by the Astros in Game 1, as they shellacked him for five earned runs in 4.1 innings. Nola has now given up 11 earned runs in his last two postseason starts after finishing the regular season in shaky fashion.


The play: MLB, Astros to win World Series

The odds/bet: +125 ($10 to win $12.50)

The book: BetMGM

Our take: This is as much a play on Wednesday’s Game 4 as anything, because if our best bet comes through and Houston wins to tie the series at 2, bettors won’t get value like this again.

It was just five days ago when the Astros were -175 to win the series, and they’re one win here away from regaining home-field advantage.

And if somehow you have a future bet on the Phillies (like me), this is the perfect – and final time – you’ll be able (or want) to hedge.


Tuesday’s best bets

NBA: Heat -1 over Warriors (WON $30)

NBA: Timberwolves +4 over Suns (LOST $11)

Tuesday’s profit/loss: +$19 (1-1)

Total for the week: +$55.70 (2-2)

Total for November: +$19 (1-1)

Total for 2022: +$45.30 (280-307)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).


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