Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Thursday, Oct. 27:
TOP PLAY
The play: NFL, Tampa Bay – Baltimore under 46
The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Our take: Just 24 hours ago we were set to tease Tampa Bay at +7 when they were one-point dogs, but the oddsmakers got smart and realized all the sharps were thinking the same thing, so they jacked up the line to make it impossible to get through the key numbers.
So while we’re too late to the party to do it here – unlike in our NFL picks column for the week – we’ll take the next best thing. While we don’t trust the Bucs to finally get right, we fully expect their best effort of the season on a short week following an embarrassing loss at Carolina last week.
Therefore, to do that, their defense must step up to limit Lamar Jackson and a resurgent running game with Gus Edwards.
Lastly, both of these teams have played in three straight under games, and Baltimore has done it four games in a row. Don’t see a reason to buck that trend now.
FOURNETTE NIGHT IN TAMPA?
The play: NFL player prop, Leonard Fournette to rush for more than 50.5 yards
The odds/bet: -109 ($10.90 to win $10)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Our take: Continuing with the theme of it’s “put up or shut up time” for Tampa Bay, if they are going to win this game, they will need to lean on Fournette.
In the three victories for the Bucs this season – against Dallas, New Orleans and Atlanta – the former LSU star rushed a combined 59 times for 248 yards. In their four losses, he has rushed 34 times for a measly 114 yards total. Even this lackluster coaching staff must realize they have to feed the ball to No. 7.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NBA: Rockets +7.5 over Jazz (LOST $33 – gosh dang hook got us again!)
Wednesday’s profit/loss: -$33 (0-1)
Total for the week: -$100.50 (1-4)
Total for October: +$249.70 (29-17)
Total for 2022: +$45 (274-300)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
