Finding value in Bears-Patriots Monday Night Football contest: Best bets for Oct. 24

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New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) celebrates after a touchdown run of over 30 yards against the Cleveland Browns during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Monday, Oct. 24:

TOP PLAY

The play: Monday Night Football total: Bears at Patriots under 40 points

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Our take: There have been several underwhelming NFL primetime matchups this season as far as few points being scored, and tonight’s Bears-Patriots matchup projects to fit that theme.

The Bears have one of the least efficient offenses in the league, and while the Patriots have picked up their scoring pace as of late, they likely won’t need to throw much considering how weak the Bears are against the run.

This projects to be a quick contest with a lot more running than throwing, so the total should stay under 40 assuming no turnover touchdowns, which are less likely with neither team likely to air it out.

PATRIOTS TO COVER

The play: NFL, Patriots (-8) over Bears

The odds/bet: -115 ($11.50 to win $10)

The book: DraftKings

Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Our take: This line has continued to move in favor of the Patriots to where there’s not quite as much value, but there’s a mismatch that’s too glaring to ignore.

That mismatch is the strong Patriots running game against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run, and the Pats will have early down thumper Damien Harris back to complement emerging workhorse Rhamondre Stevenson.

With both Harris and Stevenson in the lineup, this projects to be a long night for the Bears, and they likely won’t deliver a backdoor cover with quarterback Justin Fields being among the worst passers in the game.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Sunday’s best bets

  • NFL Week 7 teaser: Saints +8.5 over Cardinals, Raiders -1 over Texans (WON $30)
  • NFL money line parlay: Bengals over Falcons, Chargers over Seahawks (LOST $33)
  • NFL total: Packers-Commanders over 41.5 (WON $10)

Sunday’s profit/loss: +$7 (2-1)

Final total for the week: +$148 (9-3)

Total for October: +$346.20 (28-13)

Total for 2022: +$145.50 (273-296)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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