College football Big Ten pick and Astros-Yankees Game 3 prediction: Best Bets for Oct. 21

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Rutgers quarterback Noah Vedral looks for an open pass against Ohio State during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Saturday, Oct. 22:

TOP PLAY

The play: NCAA football, Rutgers -3 vs. Indiana

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: Noon ET (BTN)

Our take: This is taken from my top picks of college football Week 8, so here’s an abbreviated version: The Scarlet Knights are among the nation’s top run defenses — it’s the one thing either of these teams does at an elite level.

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have problems everywhere and are lucky not to be 1-6. One place Indiana has especially struggled is … running the ball. So they’re going to have to put this game in the hands of their quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who’s among the lowest-rated in the FBS, and their defense, which is — you guessed it, among the lowest-rated in the nation.

Rutgers is at home here and though the Scarlet Knights haven’t been great offensively, either, three points is not enough against the Big Ten’s worst team.

ALCS GAME 3

The play: ALCS Game 3, Astros money line over Yankees

The odds/bet: +130 ($10 to win $13)

The book: WynnBET

Time/TV: 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS)

Our take: The series has moved to New York, the Yankees’ backs are against the wall and they’ve got ace Gerrit Cole on the mound … easy pick, right?

Yep. Say what you will about the Astros, but they’ve proven, among other things, that their extreme confidence (you might have other words for it) is unassailable. They’ve been unflappable in the face of hostile crowds over and over again throughout this six-year run of ALCS appearances, so what’s waiting for them in the Bronx won’t bother them. Cole is tough, but the Astros pitchers, including starter Cristian Javier, are also, and Houston has more depth.

The Yankees complained after Game 2 that the Astros had gotten lucky, most recently on Alex Bregman’s wind-blown three-run homer that was the difference in Game 2. The Yanks are right — the Astros have gotten lucky so far in these playoffs, winning all five games by either one or two runs. That’s not sustainable long-term, but it’s also not all luck. Houston is brimming with confidence (and pitching), New York isn’t hitting and this series is about to be on the brink.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Thursday’s best bets (no picks Friday)

NFL teaser: Saints +8.5/Raiders -1 (PENDING — lucky us!)

ALCS Game 2: Yankees-Astros OVER 7 runs (LOST $11)

Thursday’s profit/loss: -$11 (0-1, 1 pending)

Total for the week: +$98 (5-2, 1 pending)

Total for October: +$303.20 (24-12, 1 pending)

Total for 2022: +$102.50 (269-295, 1 pending)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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