Joe Burrow to come back to Earth in Week 7? See top player props and matchups to watch

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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks to pass against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game in New Orleans, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Week 7 of the NFL is here, and with it comes a challenge to fantasy football players considering that four of the league’s top offenses are on a bye week.

Even though there won’t be any Bills, Eagles, Vikings or Rams players taking the field, there are values to be had with player props this week because players on lesser offenses tend to be slept on.

We’ve got the top player prop plays for passing, rushing and receiving as well as the matchups to keep an eye on for fantasy.

Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

TOP PROP PLAYS

Passing top play

Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 285.5 yards (-117) vs. Falcons

Burrow should get off to a strong start against a weak Falcons pass defense, but he likely won’t be forced to throw much as the game goes on, making the under a value.

Passing honorable mention

Texans QB Davis Mills OVER 231.5 yards (-117) at Raiders

The Texans have had an up-and-down passing game, but this should be one of the up weeks for Mills because his team will likely be trailing against the Raiders and force him to air it out.

Rushing top play

Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette OVER 65.5 yards (-115) at Panthers

The Bucs running game hasn’t been quite as strong as expected with Fournette as the workhorse, but this is a great get for him against a struggling Panthers defense.

Rushing honorable mention

Raiders RB Josh Jacobs OVER 80.5 yards (-115) at Texans

While 80 is a high number for a player prop, Jacobs should easily go over if the game script goes as expected with the Raiders being out front and attacking a weak Texans run defense.

Receiving top play

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle OVER 59.5 yards (-117) vs. Steelers

The Steelers secondary is among the worst against the pass, and they’ll be directing their attention toward Tyreek Hill, which should give Waddle plenty of big-play opportunities.

Receiving honorable mention

Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 36.5 yards (-115) at Ravens

The Ravens are also among the most big-play prone secondaries in the NFL, and Peoples-Jones should be heavily involved with Ravens top corner Marlon Humphrey shadowing Amari Cooper.

SEASON PROP RECORD

Passing: 7-5 (top play 2-4, HM 5-1)

Rushing: 5-7 (top play 3-3, HM 2-4)

Receiving: 7-5 (top play 4-2, HM 3-3)

TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Shootout of the Week: Chiefs at 49ers

There wasn’t an obvious shootout of the week candidate this week, but this Chiefs-49ers showdown could deliver after last week’s Chiefs-Bills matchup didn’t produce points like we were thinking. The 49ers defense is banged up, and the Chiefs defense has been among the most vulnerable to the opposition, so both offenses should be able to eat with elite playmakers on both sides.

Fantasy starts: QBs Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo; RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jeff Wilson; WRs Deebo Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Brandon Aiyuk; TEs Travis Kelce and George Kittle

Low-key shootout: Seahawks at Chargers

Both the Chargers and Seahawks are coming off down weeks as far as scoring, but they’re set to bounce back this week considering both of their offenses have been better than their defenses overall. Justin Herbert is getting his top weapon back in Keenan Allen, and Geno Smith will likely be forced to air it out with the Seahawks likely trailing and isn’t lacking in weapons either.

Fantasy starts: QBs Justin Herbert and Geno Smith; RBs Austin Ekeler and Kenneth Walker; WRs Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett; TEs Gerald Everett and Noah Fant

Stay away: Bears at Patriots

This week’s Monday Night Football contest projects to be ugly, as neither the Bears or Patriots have produced consistently on offense outside of their running games. While both starting running backs are worth a look for fantasy, the struggling passing games make this one an overall stay away considering none of the quarterbacks, wide receivers or tight ends are dependable.

Fantasy starts: Sit everyone but Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson and Bears RB David Montgomery

Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers

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