College football pick in the SEC and a Guardians-Yankees prediction: Best Bets for Oct. 15

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Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hugs first baseman Josh Naylor after the Guardians defeating the New York Yankees in Game 2 of an American League Division baseball series, Friday, Oct. 14, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Saturday, Oct. 15:

TOP PLAY

The play: NCAA football, Kentucky +4 vs. Mississippi State

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

Our take: The Wildcats have been the subject of some crazy lines just in the past couple of weeks, laying a bunch of points at Ole Miss and then seeing the line drop nearly a touchdown last week before losing to South Carolina.

That last one, which turned into a Kentucky loss, was mostly because pro prospect quarterback Will Levis was out. He’s back this week, according to all reports, and so this line has dropped dramatically too, from the -8 or -9 range all the way down to -4.

We still don’t think it’s enough. Kentucky is at home and will be spittin’ mad after the loss to the Gamecocks last week. Mississippi State is generally underrated, but the Bulldogs will have issues with the Wildcats’ hard-nosed defense, and Levis will keep it close. The money line at +143 is worth a sprinkle, too, but we’ll play it safe and take the four points.

MLB PLAYOFFS

The play: MLB playoffs money line, Guardians to beat Yankees

The odds/bet: +100 ($10 to win $10)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Our take: If you were paying attention Friday night, you might have learned a valuable lesson: Crowds participating in their first playoff game in a long time are absolutely geeked up.

And the Phillies (first home playoff game since 2011) and Padres (first with fans since 2006) certainly seemed to feed off the energy in victories, the latter to break a nice streak we had going on Daily Best Bets.

There are a couple of possibilities today. The Mariners have the longest drought of all, as they’ll play their first home playoff game since 2001 against the Astros. At -110, the M’s aren’t the worst play on the board. But it’s hard to trust Seattle after they coughed up two winnable games in Houston, the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez is as hot as any player on the planet and the pitching matchup is about even.

Instead, we’ll turn to Cleveland (last home playoff game with fans: 2018), where we have a red-hot pitcher, Triston McKenzie, on the mound for the Guardians. He was simply marvelous late in the season, recording a 2.27 ERA over his last seven starts with 48 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 43⅔ innings pitched and followed that with six shutout innings in the Wild Card Series against Tampa Bay.

The Guardians likely won’t have ace closer Emmanuel Clase after he threw 33 pitches Friday, but the bullpen is still stacked, and the Yankees lineup — Aaron Judge included — is in one of those postseason funks that can cost great teams (like the Dodgers, too) in short playoff series.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Friday’s best bets

MLB playoffs: Dodgers to beat Padres (LOST $36)

NBA preseason: Jazz +7 vs. Mavericks (LOST $11.50)

Friday’s profit/loss: -$47.50 (0-2)

Total for the week: +$86.60 (5-4, 1 pending)

Total for October: +$247.30 (17-7, 1 pending)

Total for 2022: +$46.60 (262-290, 1 pending)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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