Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and we’ve identified our top player prop value plays for passers, rushers and receivers.
We delivered a winning record last week for both the top plays and honorable mention plays, and we’re looking to keep it going this week with a series of interesting matchups on tap.
We’ve also pegged the top matchups this week from a fantasy football perspective, so make sure to monitor that when setting your fantasy lineups in season-long leagues and in DFS.
Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
TOP PROP PLAYS
Passing top play: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray OVER 258.5 yards (-117) at Seahawks
Murray’s been inconsistent as a passer this season, but he possesses elite upside and is in prime position to reach his potential through the air against a weak Seahawks defense.
Passing honorable mention: Falcons QB Marcus Mariota UNDER 198.5 yards (-117) vs. 49ers
The 49ers have the league’s top-ranked defense through five weeks and shouldn’t have trouble slowing down Mariota, who’s been struggling as a passer lately.
Rushing top play: Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier UNDER 48.5 yards (-135) vs. 49ers
This is another play due to the 49ers defense, as they’re also elite against the run and should be able to keep the rookie Allgeier below the total even though he’s now a starting running back.
Rushing honorable mention: 49ers RB Jeff Wilson OVER 66.5 yards (-135) at Falcons
We’re going with another player involved in the 49ers-Falcons contest, as Wilson should be able to run all over the weak Falcons defense and pile up yards.
Receiving top play: Cardinals TE Zach Ertz OVER 48.5 yards (-135) at Seahawks
Taking the over on tight ends against the Seahawks has proven to be a winning strategy this season, and Ertz should continue that trend against the league’s worst defense against tight ends.
Receiving honorable mention: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans OVER 63.5 yards (-139) at Steelers
The Steelers defense just got torched by Stefon Diggs and the Bills, and Evans should have a huge day against the weak Steelers secondary as Tom Brady’s most trusted field stretcher.
SEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: Top play 2-3, HM 4-1
Rushing: Top play 3-2, HM 2-3
Receiving: Top play 3-2, HM 3-2
TOP MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Shootout of the Week: Bills at Chiefs
While this rematch between the AFC’s most prolific offenses likely won’t see 78 points scored like last season’s playoff contest, there should still be plenty of offensive fireworks with elite quarterback play and so much talent on both sides. Don’t be afraid to start multiple players from both teams and reep the benefits as they look to outscore each other.
Fantasy starts: QBs Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes; RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Devin Singletary; WRs Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling; TEs Travis Kelce and Dawson Knox (if active)
Low-key shootout: Cardinals at Seahawks
The weather in Seattle is set to be sunny with no rain on Sunday, which bodes well for this contest turning into a high-scoring affair. Kyler Murray and Geno Smith rank as top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points, and they should continue padding their stats while trading blows against each other on the field this week.
Fantasy starts: QBs Kyler Murray and Geno Smith; RBs Eno Benjamin and Kenneth Walker; WRs Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett; TE Zach Ertz
Stay away: Panthers at Rams
The Panthers are down to P.J. Walker at quarterback and haven’t shown a consistent ability to move the ball, and the Rams rank near the bottom in offense too with Matthew Stafford struggling, so it makes sense to avoid all players in this matchup for fantasy outside of studs Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey.
Fantasy starts: Sit everyone but Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers