An Oregon-Arizona prediction and an MLB playoffs parlay: Best Picks for Oct. 8

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Oregon quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes against Stanford during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Saturday, Oct. 8:

TOP PLAY

The play: College football, Oregon -13½ at Arizona

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 9 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

Our take: As mentioned in my college football betting primer this week, this one comes down to a pretty simple stat. Arizona is the fourth-worst team in the country at defending the run; Oregon is the eighth-best. That’s out of 131 teams, mind you.

The Ducks have some advantages elsewhere, but it what could end up being a shootout, what could be more valuable than the ability to run the ball at will? If Oregon gets out to a lead, it’s going to pad it and control the clock to keep Arizona at arm’s length. If the Ducks fall behind, the Wildcats will have trouble doing the same, and that opens the up the possibility for a comeback.

This number was 13 for most of the week and ticked up by a half-point Friday. But as long as it’s under 14, we like our chances with Oregon, which has quite a resurgence after their national-spotlight beatdown from Georgia on the opening Saturday of the season.

MLB MONEY-LINE PARLAY

The play: MLB playoffs, Blue Jays to beat Mariners/Phillies to beat Cardinals

The odds/bet: +211 ($10 to win $21.10)

The book: DraftKings

Time/TV: Seattle-Toronto, 4:07 p.m. ET (ESPN), Philadelphia-St. Louis 8:37 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Our take: If you want to stay conservative, you could certainly choose the game here you like better, but we’ll roll the dice on a parlay.

The Blue Jays have a right-hand heavy lineup that should do some damage against left-handed Mariners starter Robbie Ray (who won the Cy Young with Toronto last year, incidentally). Even a few runs might be enough with Kevin Gausman and his nasty splitter starting for the home team. And quite frankly, even speaking as a huge Mariners fan, it’d be a shock to see the Jays go home in two games with a stacked lineup in front of that boisterous crowd.

In the later game, the Cardinals may still be shell-shocked after giving up six in the ninth inning on Friday. More importantly, Philadelphia, with Aaron Nola on the mound, have the edge in starting pitching over St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas. Nola has been phenomenal lately, and the Phillies will certainly pull out all the stops to end this series here, because a Sunday Game 3 would bring Adam Wainwright, nostalgia and Cardinals momentum into the equation.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Friday’s best bet

MLB playoffs: Padres-Mets OVER 6 (WON $30)

Friday’s profit/loss: +$30 (1-0)

Total for the week: +$83.70 (6-2)

Total for October: +$100.70 (9-2)

Total for 2022: -$100 (254-285)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

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