Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here is our best bet for Friday, Oct. 7:
The play: MLB playoffs, Mets-Padres OVER 6
The odds/bet: -120 ($36 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 8:07 p.m. (ESPN)
Our take: It’s easy to look at a game like this, the final contest of a Wild Card quadruple-header on Friday, and see the starting pitchers — Max Scherzer vs. Yu Darvish — and think it’ll finish low-scoring, like the first two games of the day did.
But that does a disservice to both teams’ lineups, which are littered with names like Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte.
In all, there are nine hitters in the two lineups with a career OPS of at least .800, and many of those names listed above are home run threats every at-bat.
Add to the fact that Scherzer and Darvish have been good lately but not great, and it’s pretty easy to get this game over the low bar of 6 runs. It’s also worth noting that both bullpens have their issues — the Mets have the best closer in the game in Edwin Diaz but sometimes have trouble bridging the gap to him, and the Padres have had trouble finding reliable relief all season.
On a low-scoring day thus far in the MLB playoffs, we expect to finish with an over.
HOW WE’VE FARED
Thursday’s best bets
NFL: Colts +3.5 over Broncos (WON $30)
NFL: Colts-Broncos UNDER 42 (WON $10)
Thursday’s profit/loss: +$40 (2-0)
Total for the week: +$53.70 (5-2)
Total for October: +$70.70 (8-2)
Total for 2022: -$130 (253-285)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).