Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Thursday, Oct. 6:
The play: NFL, Colts +3.5 over Broncos
The odds/bet: -115 ($34.50 to win $30)
The book: BetMGM
Time/TV: 7:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime Video)
Our take: While we realize the Colts are banged up and haven’t been playing well, we know what we have seen with Denver, and they don’t seem to be in a position to be laying a field goal and a hook – no matter where they are playing.
For Indianapolis, with running back Jonathan Taylor out, Matt Ryan will HAVE to take more of the load upon his shoulders, and there’s good reason to think he can do so. The play calling should be a bit more wide open, as he looks for running back Nyheim Hines out of the backfield and Michael Pittman. Also, the Broncos are 19th in the NFL so far against the tight end, so it could be another good week for Mo Alie-Cox.
Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how the Broncos deal without having Javonte Williams for the season, as they go up against the sixth-best rushing defense in the NFL. And Russell Wilson, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, has been flat-out awful thus far.
In other words, we like Ryan more than we like Wilson to find a way, and the +150 ML might be worth a smaller play with this.
The play: NFL, Colts-Broncos under 42
The odds/bet: -110 ($11 to win $10)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Our take: Like we told you, both teams are without their top running backs, although Indy’s position seems temporary.
While it likely means more passing, which could extend the clock, it would be a stretch to think either has a major advantage against the opposing defenses, which continue to play well.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NCAA football: SMU at Central Florida over 63.5 (LOST $33)
Wednesday’s profit/loss: -$33 (0-1)
Total for the week: +$13.70 (3-2)
Total for October: +$30.70 (6-2)
Total for 2022: -$170 (253-283)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).