Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here is our best bet for Saturday, Sept. 17:
TOP PLAY
The play: USC-Fresno State UNDER 72½
The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)
The book: BetMGM
Time/TV: 10:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Our take: It’s easy to look at this matchup, see the way the Bulldogs and Trojans have lit up scoreboards across California thus far and think that it’s going to be one of those classic late-night West Coast shootouts. And sure enough, more than 90% of the money has come in on the over around the country.
But this total has gotten out of control. USC has had some inflated scoring because of turnovers, including three pick-6s its opener against Rice.
The truth is, both USC — and especially Fresno State — like to run the ball more than you realize. They both will pop a big play every now and then, but in four combined games, they have only two touchdown plays longer than 25 yards. That means they’re driving down the field, and even if points are being scored, it’s likely that too much time will come off the clock for the 70s to be within reach.
It’s not fun to root for a clock, but it can be profitable. Barring a crazy end-game situation or overtime, we should be safely under when this one ends.
HOW WE’VE FARED
MLB player prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases (LOST $30)
MLB parlay: Guardians/White Sox money line parlay (LOST $10)
Friday’s profit/loss: -$40 (0-2)
Total for the week: -$28.30 (3-7)
Total for September: -$185.40 (10-20)
Total for 2022: -$234.20 (233-269)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
