Vlad Jr. total bases prop and an MLB parlay: Best Bets for Sept. 16

Toronto Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. celebrates his solo home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022, in Toronto. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Friday, Sept. 16:


The play: MLB player prop, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases vs. Orioles

The odds/bet: +105 ($30 to win $31.50)

The book: DraftKings

Time/TV: 6:07 p.m. (Apple TV+)

Our take: Sometimes the price is just right. Guerrero is a hitting machine, of course, and although he hasn’t been quite as spectacular as he was last season, he’s getting hot again in September and is among baseball’s leaders in hard-hit balls as measured by exit velocity.

Speaking of EV, check out what Vlad did against Orioles starter Jordan Lyles the last time they met, on Aug. 8: 101.5 mph single, 92.5 mph flyout, 86.4 mph flyout. And last year, when Lyles was with the Texas Rangers, Vladito also uncorked a 100.1 mph home run.

You need two things to go over total bases props: Hard-hit balls and balls in the air. Vlad Jr. is supplying both against Lyles. You could also take a shot at Vlad to hit a home run at +400, but we’ll stick with total bases, where we need any type of extra-base hit, or a couple of singles, to cash.


The play: MLB money line parlay, Guardians over Twins/White Sox over Tigers

The odds/bet: +180 ($10 to win $18)

The book: DraftKings

Time/TV: Both games 6:10 p.m. (MLB TV)

Our take: It’s crunch time in the AL Central, with the Cleveland Guardians leading the division by three games over the Chicago White Sox and by four games over the Minnesota Twins.

In this case, we’ve got the two teams closest to the lead with starting pitching advantages, and a parlay pays quite nicely. Guardians starter Triston McKenzie is on a strikeout binge, and Cleveland just swept Minnesota last week.

White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has struggled this year, but he’s showing signs of his old self over the past month or so. Facing Detroit’s hapless lineup will help, too.


Thursday’s best bets

NFL: Chargers-Chiefs UNDER 54 (WON $40)

NFL parlay: Mahomes under 297.5 yards/Herbert under 283.5 yards (LOST $10)

Thursday’s profit/loss: +$30 (1-1)

Total for the week: +$11.70 (3-5)

Total for September: -$145.40 (10-18)

Total for 2022: -$194.20 (233-267)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).



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