Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Thursday, Dec. 29:
TOP PLAY
The play: NFL, Cowboys at Titans under 40
The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 7:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime Video)
Our take: In my weekly NFL picks column, it was tough to take a pick Wednesday not know who would play in this game. Now that it’s a bit more clear, it seems like this is a throwaway game for the Titans, who are starting Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and are resting Derrick Henry, Malik Willis and several defensive players.
That might be an automatic play on the Cowboys for some, but at -13.5 on a line that has swayed dramatically from -9.5 earlier this week, that simply is too many points to lay, as we aren’t sure how much Dallas will put into this game either, considering there’s about a 95-percent chance they are locked into the 4 seed in the NFC. That means this is basically a meaningless game for both teams, as the Titans will face Jacksonville next week for the AFC South title, regardless of what happens Thursday.
We might only see a half of the Cowboys starters in the game (especially after the emotional victory last week) with the second half being like a preseason game and very few Titans starters. And we know what happens in preseason games … lots of unders.
This easily could be a 20-3 type of game, but with the total drifting upward, we think there’s now nice value on the under.
BOWLING WITH THE NOLES
The play: Cheez-It Bowl, Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma
The odds/bet: -114 ($11.40 to win $10)
The book: FanDuel
Time/TV: 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Our take: This is quite simple: The Seminoles will go into next season in the Top 10 in the country, and most of those players are on the field Thursday. Conversely, the Sooners are going completely in the opposite direction and very well could be fighting to be bowl eligible in 2023.
Despite a line a half-point shy of double digits (and -10 almost everywhere else), this could be one of the easier picks of the entire bowl season, as it would not be a surprise to see FSU win this one by three touchdowns.
HOW WE’VE FARED
Wednesday’s best bets
Holiday Bowl: Oregon-North Carolina over 75.5 (LOST $33)
Holiday Bowl: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix to pass for more than 287.5 yards (LOST $11.40)
Wednesday’s profit/loss: -$44.40 (0-2)
Total for the week: -$48.40 (2-4)
Total for December: -$94.60 (22-30)
Total for 2022: +$116.30 (334-361)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
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